1952 Private Road 3836 · Hawk Cove, TX 75474

$49,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1965 0.33 ac lot $55/sqft · 79% below area ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime Investment Opportunity Near Lake Tawakoni! Attention investors! Unlock the potential of three spacious lots featuring a doublewide mobile home, ideal for a full renovation or teardown to create your vision. Located just minutes from Lake Tawakoni, Texas’ renowned catfish capital, this property is perfect for tenants drawn to outdoor recreation, offering strong rental or redevelopment potential. Plus, an additional building (32ft x 12.5ft x 12ft) ready to be transformed into a livable space. Exclusive Bundle Deal! The seller also owns a second property across the street at 1957 Private Road 3836, spanning three additional lots with a singlewide mobile home needing minimal repairs, plus a carport and shed for added value. Buy both properties together at a special discounted price! Seller is motivated! All offer's welcome! All information is approximate and to be verified by buyer and buyer's agent.

Key facts

• Three spacious lots
• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1965

Tags

• THREE SPACIOUS LOTS
• DOUBLEWIDE MOBILE HOME
• STRONG RENTAL POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $696 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.3% vs local median 3.6% in Hawk Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,499 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Quinlan ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #610 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 335 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($339 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.90%
• DSCR: 3.71
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,000
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: -78.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $71,061
• Equity at exit: $44,143

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.9%
• Equity multiple: 13.71×
• Total profit: $174,433
• Equity at exit: $95,196

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75474

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,319 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $816/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $696

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 926-char remark

   Show marketing remark (926 chars)

   Prime Investment Opportunity Near Lake Tawakoni! Attention investors! Unlock the potential of three spacious lots featuring a doublewide mobile home, ideal for a full renovation or teardown to create your vision. Located just minutes from Lake Tawakoni, Texas’ renowned catfish capital, this property is perfect for tenants drawn to outdoor recreation, offering strong rental or redevelopment potential. Plus, an additional building (32ft x 12.5ft x 12ft) ready to be transformed into a livable space. Exclusive Bundle Deal! The seller also owns a second property across the street at 1957 Private Road 3836, spanning three additional lots with a singlewide mobile home needing minimal repairs, plus a carport and shed for added value. Buy both properties together at a special discounted price! Seller is motivated! All offer's welcome! All information is approximate and to be verified by buyer and buyer's agent.

2. 2026-05-14
   price $49,000 926-char remark

   Show marketing remark (926 chars)

   Prime Investment Opportunity Near Lake Tawakoni! Attention investors! Unlock the potential of three spacious lots featuring a doublewide mobile home, ideal for a full renovation or teardown to create your vision. Located just minutes from Lake Tawakoni, Texas’ renowned catfish capital, this property is perfect for tenants drawn to outdoor recreation, offering strong rental or redevelopment potential. Plus, an additional building (32ft x 12.5ft x 12ft) ready to be transformed into a livable space. Exclusive Bundle Deal! The seller also owns a second property across the street at 1957 Private Road 3836, spanning three additional lots with a singlewide mobile home needing minimal repairs, plus a carport and shed for added value. Buy both properties together at a special discounted price! Seller is motivated! All offer's welcome! All information is approximate and to be verified by buyer and buyer's agent.

3. 2026-03-28
   listed $59,000 Active 926-char remark

   Show marketing remark (926 chars)

   Prime Investment Opportunity Near Lake Tawakoni! Attention investors! Unlock the potential of three spacious lots featuring a doublewide mobile home, ideal for a full renovation or teardown to create your vision. Located just minutes from Lake Tawakoni, Texas’ renowned catfish capital, this property is perfect for tenants drawn to outdoor recreation, offering strong rental or redevelopment potential. Plus, an additional building (32ft x 12.5ft x 12ft) ready to be transformed into a livable space. Exclusive Bundle Deal! The seller also owns a second property across the street at 1957 Private Road 3836, spanning three additional lots with a singlewide mobile home needing minimal repairs, plus a carport and shed for added value. Buy both properties together at a special discounted price! Seller is motivated! All offer's welcome! All information is approximate and to be verified by buyer and buyer's agent.

4. 2026-03-23
   historical
5. 2026-02-10
   status Active
6. 2025-09-24
   listed $69,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $816 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $897 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$81/yr (+$7/mo · 9.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$816
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,266
• − Management: −$1,266
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $8,060
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,935
• After-tax cash flow: $6,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quinlan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836240
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,461
• Composite: 26.16/100
• National rank: #7271
• State rank: #610 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hawk Cove

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1499
• US rank: #25625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hunt County · 71,969 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,671
• Household income: $64,103
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.95%
• Current HPI: 484.21
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-29.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $49,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $59,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $69,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $816 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.