The Palmer Plan · Fulshear, TX 77441

$368,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,934 sqft · SingleFamily · 248 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Palmer, a large home featuring a standard first-floor owner's suite and the unique option of a second owner's suite upstairs. The first floor features open living and dining areas. At the top of the stairs, you'll be greeted by a huge loft and three additional bedrooms, two with walk-in closets. An optional second owner's suite includes a more cozy yet ample loft area. In either configuration, a junior en suite bedroom is standard.

Key facts

• Second owner's suite
• Huge loft
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR OWNER'S SUITE
• SECOND OWNER'S SUITE
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREAS
• HUGE LOFT
• JUNIOR EN SUITE BEDROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $368,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $385,826.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $369k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-317 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $340k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $306k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $306k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1928 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 185d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $305,746 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $385,826
• List price: $368,990
• Delta: -4.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8434 Calico Pennant Way	0.13mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,841 (-3%)	4mo	$413,085	$145	80
32219 Waterford Crest Ln	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,958 (+1%)	1mo	$450,000	$152	80
7927 River Bluet Pl	0.42mi	4/4.0	3,016 (+3%)	4mo	$664,990	$220	70
8110 Red Shiner Way	0.17mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,160 (+8%)	3mo	$374,900	$119	69
32634 Watersmeet St	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,790 (-5%)	0mo	$585,000	$210	66
32143 Sky Branch Dr	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,799 (-5%)	0mo	$478,950	$171	64
32158 Sky Branch Dr	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,799 (-5%)	1mo	$439,964	$157	64
32403 Slender Spreadwing Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,646 (-10%)	0mo	$374,900	$142	58
8018 Sunny Ridge Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	3,039 (+4%)	3mo	$524,901	$173	58
32405 Forktail Lake Dr	0.43mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,221 (+10%)	4mo	$554,990	$172	53
5319 Weston Dr	0.67mi	4/4.0	3,258 (+11%)	3mo	$655,000	$201	46
8127 Sunny Ridge Dr	0.74mi	4/4.5	3,198 (+9%)	4mo	$517,942	$162	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-91,610
• Equity at exit: $57,528

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-140,079
• Equity at exit: $33,359

Cash invested: $108,031 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 128 active · 63 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.8 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $490,000 ($172/sqft)
• Median days on market: 67 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -23.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1928
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,057 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$482 /mo · $5,787/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$642
• Net cashflow: $-317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,459

Max offer price $339,895

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-51	-5% $-184	+0% $-317	+5% $-451	+10% $-584
Rent	-10% $-559	-5% $-438	+0% $-317	+5% $-197	+10% $-76
Rate	-1.0pp $-123	-0.5pp $-219	base $-317	+0.5pp $-417	+1.0pp $-519

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,456
• Closing costs: $11,575
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32402 Clouser Crawdad Ct Fulshear, TX	5.0	3.5	3000	$2,950	$0.98	25d	1	0.10mi
8106 Royal Palm Ct Fulshear, TX	5.0	4.0	2946	$2,950	$1.00	184d	1	1.28mi
8114 Royal Palm Ct Fulshear, TX	5.0	4.0	2960	$3,295	$1.11	184d	1	1.30mi
7302 New Pecan Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	4.0	2844	$3,299	$1.16	10d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $368,990 Active 248 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $368,990 Active 247 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $368,990 Active 246 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $368,990 Active 245 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $368,990 Active 244 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $368,990 Active 242 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $368,990 Active 241 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $368,990 Active 240 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $368,990 Active 239 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $368,990 Active 238 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $368,990 Active 237 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $368,990 Active 236 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $368,990 Active 235 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $368,990 Active 234 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $368,990 Active 233 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $368,990 Active 232 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $368,990 Active 231 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $368,990 Active 230 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $368,990 Active 229 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $368,990 Active 228 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $368,990 Active 227 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $368,990 Active 226 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $368,990 Active 225 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $368,990 Active 224 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $368,990 Active 223 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $368,990 Active 222 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $368,990 Active 221 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $368,990 Active 220 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $368,990 Active 219 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $368,990 Active 218 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $368,990 Active 217 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $368,990 Active 216 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $368,990 Active 215 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $368,990 Active 214 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $368,990 Active 213 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $368,990 Active 212 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $368,990 Active 211 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $368,990 Active 210 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $368,990 Active 209 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $368,990 Active 208 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $368,990 Active 207 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $368,990 Active 206 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $368,990 Active 205 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $368,990 Active 204 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $368,990 Active 203 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $368,990 Active 202 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $368,990 Active 201 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $368,990 Active 200 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $368,990 Active 199 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $368,990 Active 197 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,612
• − Property taxes: −$5,787
• − Insurance: −$2,727
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,935
• − Management: −$2,935
• − Depreciation: −$11,224
• Taxable loss: −$10,531
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,527
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern interior and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental appeal ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $364,990 Zillow