The Hernando at Seabrook Village Phase 2 Plan · Nocatee, FL 32081

$600,940

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,204 sqft · SingleFamily · 390 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.4/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Hernando features 1,884 Sq Ft. of living space with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, Family Room, Kitchen, Café, 1st Floor Owners Suite, Loft, Covered Patio and 2-Car Garage.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 390 days

🏗️ New construction. The $600,940 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $778,200.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $601k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $385k (36.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (44.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $336k (44.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 652 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($132k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $-4k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 390 days — a 12% lower offer ($529k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $336,487 (44.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 390 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.98%
• DSCR: 0.33
• GRM: 19.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $778,200
• List price: $600,940
• Delta: -22.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
944 Caiden Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,239 (+2%)	2mo	$629,000	$281	74
388 Seamark Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,239 (+2%)	2mo	$650,000	$290	71
406 Reflections Ave	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,395 (+9%)	1mo	$670,000	$280	66
321 Reflections Ave	0.31mi	4/3.5	2,396 (+9%)	2mo	$710,000	$296	66
377 Reflections Ave	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,395 (+9%)	3mo	$635,000	$265	65
385 Reflections Ave	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,400 (+9%)	0mo	$670,000	$279	63
427 Reflections Ave	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,399 (+9%)	0mo	$699,787	$292	62
439 Reflections Ave	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,396 (+9%)	3mo	$824,988	$344	60
230 Seamark Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,322 (+5%)	2mo	$667,900	$288	56
855 Caiden Dr	0.56mi	4/3.5	2,392 (+8%)	0mo	$790,900	$331	55
345 Seamark Dr	0.57mi	4/3.5	2,398 (+9%)	3mo	$679,900	$284	52
325 Seamark Dr	0.60mi	4/3.5	2,398 (+9%)	2mo	$664,900	$277	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.49% appreciation · 1.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-219,861
• Equity at exit: $207,123

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-356,337
• Equity at exit: $234,394

Cash invested: $217,896 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32081

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 652
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,081
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$973 /mo · $11,673/yr
• Insurance: −$324
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $-2,720

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,808

Max offer price $384,653

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $194,550
• Closing costs: $23,346
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10260 Old Dixie Hwy Ponte Vedra, FL	4.0	3.0	2500	$3,099	$1.24	3d	1	1.19mi
48 Pine Shadow Pkwy Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.5	1134	$3,887	$3.43	3d	46	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $600,940 Active 390 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $600,940 Active 389 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $600,940 Active 388 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $600,940 Active 387 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $600,940 Active 385 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $600,940 Active 384 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $600,940 Active 381 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $600,940 Active 380 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $600,940 Active 379 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $600,940 Active 375 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $600,940 Active 374 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $600,940 Active 373 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $600,940 Active 372 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $600,940 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    The Hernando features 1,884 Sq Ft. of living space with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, Family Room, Kitchen, Café, 1st Floor Owners Suite, Loft, Covered Patio and 2-Car Garage.

15. 2025-05-24
    listed $590,940 Active 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    The Hernando features 1,884 Sq Ft. of living space with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, Family Room, Kitchen, Café, 1st Floor Owners Suite, Loft, Covered Patio and 2-Car Garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,378
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,591
• − Property taxes: −$11,673
• − Insurance: −$3,891
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,230
• − Management: −$3,230
• − Depreciation: −$22,639
• Taxable loss: −$47,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,490
• After-tax cash flow: $-21,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nocatee, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,784
• Household income: $131,624
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Current HPI: 145.8421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $600,940 Zillow
• 2025-05-24 Listed $590,940 Zillow