5379 Dawn Ct · Tallahassee, FL 32303

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Other public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1981

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully updated townhouse offers a fantastic opportunity for first-time homebuyers, investors, or those looking for single-level living. With numerous upgrades, the home features a fully replaced HVAC system (including both the interior and exterior units, plus new ductwork), and new light fixtures throughout. The kitchen and bathroom have been transformed with new cabinets, granite countertops, sinks, fixtures, pipes and connectors, and modern stainless steel appliances. An added bonus is the stainless steel washer/dryer combination. Additional improvements include fresh paint, new insulation, the water heater replaced 2022, and roof replaced 2020, providing peace of mind for the

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New cabinets
• New light fixtures

Tags

• FULLY REPLACED HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES
• NEW CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW INSULATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1981
• Exterior features: Patio

Interior

• Interior features: Pantry; Patio

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,675 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.78%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-9,316
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $12,781
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32303

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,613 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,818/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,302

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $333	-5% $289	+0% $245	+5% $201	+10% $157
Rent	-10% $118	-5% $181	+0% $245	+5% $309	+10% $372
Rate	-1.0pp $323	-0.5pp $284	base $245	+0.5pp $205	+1.0pp $164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4895 Leah Ln Tallahassee, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,800	$1.79	14d	1	0.64mi
4910 N Monroe St Tallahassee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1315	$1,604	$1.22	14d	5	1.25mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,818 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,818 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,818
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,548
• − Management: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $471
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$113
• After-tax cash flow: $2,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tallahassee

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #429

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• City population: 294,472
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,785
• Household income: $62,275
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2919.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -255.24%
• Current HPI: 241.3131
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $155,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,818 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.