21704 Ranger Rd · Lexington Park, MD 20653

$134,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1950 6,420 sqft lot Est $245k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Patuxent Park. .. . This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is located in one of the oldest subdivisions in Lexington Park and is in Fair condition and ready for you to make it "Like New again". Nice size level yard with off street parking, rear deck and plenty of space to play with partial fencing is a good place to start for the first time home buyer to make home ownership come true. Conveniently located with easy access to all that St Mary's County has to offer and just minutes from Pax River Naval Air station. Nicolet Park is close by and features a Skatepark, Splash Pad water fun, Playground, Basketball courts, Baseball field, and Picnic areas. Come and see this home and start

Key facts

• Easy access
• Level yard
• Off street parking

Tags

• LEVEL YARD
• OFF STREET PARKING
• REAR DECK
• PARTIAL FENCING
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Fee simple ownership; Property assessed below average condition

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached structure; Frame construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Crawl space foundation; Above grade and below grade structures
• Exterior features: Outside city limits; Directions: route #235 to Pegg Road, left on Midway Drive, right on Ranger Road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven/range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level; 1 full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Oven/Range - Electric; Range hood; Refrigerator; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $703 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 4.0% in Lexington Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#331 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 91 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $135k implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.35%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,376
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21701 Ranger Rd	0.03mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	14mo	$245,300	$284	87
46481 Franklin Rd	0.08mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	22mo	$215,000	$249	78
21508 Forest Run Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	960 (+11%)	14mo	$291,500	$304	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $18,004
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $54,090
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20653

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,005 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,399/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $703

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,114

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $780	-5% $742	+0% $703	+5% $665	+10% $627
Rent	-10% $545	-5% $624	+0% $703	+5% $783	+10% $862
Rate	-1.0pp $771	-0.5pp $738	base $703	+0.5pp $669	+1.0pp $633

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $134,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $134,900 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   remarks 689-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 675-char remark
6. 2026-06-16
   listed $134,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,399 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,435 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$36/yr (+$3/mo · 2.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$1,399
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,924
• − Management: −$1,924
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $6,653
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,597
• After-tax cash flow: $6,845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — Lexington Park

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #17418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington Park, MD
• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 26,852
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 26,852
• Household income: $103,048
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1571.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 28% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.67%
• Current HPI: 256.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.49%
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+184.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Coming Soon $134,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $47,450 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,399 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.