415 E Dean St, Unit 8, Weeks 10 & 12 · Aspen, CO 81611

$450,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,975 sqft · Condo public records · 82 Days on market

Built 2005 $228/sqft · 187% above area $2148/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently refreshed in 2024, this residence features updated interiors including new furnishings, lighting, paint, carpet, and curated décor throughout. Ideally positioned at the base of Aspen Mountain, steps from the Gondola, world-class dining, shopping, and vibrant nightlife. Owners enjoy set prime ski week in March, with ability to add additional float weeks. (Jan 9-16) secured for 2027. Exceptional suite of amenities and services, including daily housekeeping, dedicated concierge and valet, heated outdoor pool with two hot tubs, fitness center, fire pit, on-site ski shop, additional ski storage, and complimentary e-bikes. Daily breakfast service further enhances this effortless, resort-style living experience.

Key facts

• Two hot tubs
• Fitness center
• Updated interiors

Tags

• UPDATED INTERIORS
• NEW FURNISHINGS
• HEATED OUTDOOR POOL
• TWO HOT TUBS
• FITNESS CENTER
• FIRE PIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $450k).
• Recommended offer: $423k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#142 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,315/mo this rent would consume 135% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.

Recommended offer $423,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.35%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,780
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: 56.27%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $411,957
• Equity at exit: $405,396

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.90×
• Total profit: $1,247,119
• Equity at exit: $874,251

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81611

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Rents YoY: 22.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,315 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$842 /mo · $10,107/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$2,148
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,956
• Net cashflow: $1,822

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,010

Max offer price $450,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $2,148 · $25,776/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymdoorman
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $450,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on marketlisting id $450,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $245,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $245,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $245,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $245,000 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-03-23
    listed $255,000 Active 730-char remark

    Show marketing remark (891 chars)

    Enjoy prime spring skiing in this recently refreshed, centrally located 3 BR residence. Unit 8 has set week 12 (late March), with ability to add additional float weeks. Two weeks already secured for 2026 (late Nov and mid-Dec) with additional ski week in Jan 2027 (2-9).Updated in 2024; including interior refresh, new furnishings, lighting, paint, carpet, and curated décor throughout. Ideally positioned at the base of Aspen Mountain, placing you steps from the Aspen Gondola, world-class dining, shopping, and vibrant nightlife. Owners enjoy an exceptional suite of amenities and services, including daily housekeeping, dedicated concierge and valet, heated outdoor pool with two hot tubs, fitness center, fire pit, on-site ski shop, additional storage for skis and gear, and complimentary e-bikes. Daily breakfast service further enhances this effortless, resort-style experience.

18. 2026-03-23
    listed $245,000 Active 891-char remark

    Show marketing remark (891 chars)

    Enjoy prime spring skiing in this recently refreshed, centrally located 3 BR residence. Unit 8 has set week 12 (late March), with ability to add additional float weeks. Two weeks already secured for 2026 (late Nov and mid-Dec) with additional ski week in Jan 2027 (2-9).Updated in 2024; including interior refresh, new furnishings, lighting, paint, carpet, and curated décor throughout. Ideally positioned at the base of Aspen Mountain, placing you steps from the Aspen Gondola, world-class dining, shopping, and vibrant nightlife. Owners enjoy an exceptional suite of amenities and services, including daily housekeeping, dedicated concierge and valet, heated outdoor pool with two hot tubs, fitness center, fire pit, on-site ski shop, additional storage for skis and gear, and complimentary e-bikes. Daily breakfast service further enhances this effortless, resort-style experience.

19. 2026-03-23
    listed $450,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (891 chars)

    Enjoy prime spring skiing in this recently refreshed, centrally located 3 BR residence. Unit 8 has set week 12 (late March), with ability to add additional float weeks. Two weeks already secured for 2026 (late Nov and mid-Dec) with additional ski week in Jan 2027 (2-9).Updated in 2024; including interior refresh, new furnishings, lighting, paint, carpet, and curated décor throughout. Ideally positioned at the base of Aspen Mountain, placing you steps from the Aspen Gondola, world-class dining, shopping, and vibrant nightlife. Owners enjoy an exceptional suite of amenities and services, including daily housekeeping, dedicated concierge and valet, heated outdoor pool with two hot tubs, fitness center, fire pit, on-site ski shop, additional storage for skis and gear, and complimentary e-bikes. Daily breakfast service further enhances this effortless, resort-style experience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,107 · $842/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,107 · $842/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $111,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$10,107
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,943
• − Management: −$8,943
• − HOA: −$25,776
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable income: $17,468
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,192
• After-tax cash flow: $17,666/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta
• NCES district ID: 0802280
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $66,694
• Composite: 40.98/100
• National rank: #3595
• State rank: #18 of 86 in CO

Livability — Aspen

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #11780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aspen, CO
• County: Pitkin County · 9,068 people
• City population: 9,068
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• Population (ZIP): 9,068
• Household income: $82,664
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 566.0

Population outlook (Pitkin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,121 people
• By 2030: 21,110 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 22,707 · +12.9%
• By 2050: 24,105 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 27,933 · +38.8%
• By 2100: 30,018 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Salvadoran 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pitkin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.2) · D 71.0% · R 26.8% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: 48.8pp · 2024: 44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.2 2020: D+51.9 2016: D+45.4 2012: D+37.9 2008: D+48.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.97%
• Current HPI: 370.9593
• Rent YoY: ▲ 22.07%
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+76.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $450,000 AGMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $245,000 AGMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $255,000 AGMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,107 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.