216 Jim Dalrymple Dr · Leakey, TX 78873

$119,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 39 Days on market

Built 1985

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape to the Texas Hill Country with this charming private cabin on the Frio River, nestled within a gated community designed for peace, privacy, and relaxation. Situated on . 59 acres, an easy walk to two private parks on the beautiful Frio! This property offers the perfect blend of comfortable living and natural beauty & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; ideal as a full-time residence, or weekend getaway. The cabin features an open sleep/living area, a utility room used for kitchen and laundry/storage and a full bathroom. Washer and dryer along with air conditioning and heating (heat pump) are in place, ensuring year-round comfort whether you & acirc; & euro; & trade; re en

Key facts

• Private cabin
• Gated community
• Native gardens

Tags

• PRIVATE CABIN
• FRIO RIVER
• GATED COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE PARKS
• NATIVE GARDENS
• PRIVATE RIVER ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($815/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 0.2% in Leakey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,432 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Leakey ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #673 of 1,141 in TX (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Real County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,245 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.45%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $18,753
• Equity at exit: $53,650

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $60,495
• Equity at exit: $82,791

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78873

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $700/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $927

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $102	+0% $68	+5% $34	+10% $1
Rent	-10% $-12	-5% $28	+0% $68	+5% $108	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $98	base $68	+0.5pp $37	+1.0pp $6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $119,000 Active 1466-char remark
17. 2010-01-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $700 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,178 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,478/yr (+$123/mo · 211.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$700
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$972
• − Management: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$1,217
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$292
• After-tax cash flow: $1,107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leakey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827000
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,418
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #8855
• State rank: #673 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Leakey

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1432
• US rank: #24474

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,498

Population outlook (Real County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,289 people
• By 2030: 3,225 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 3,093 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 2,948 · -10.4%
• By 2075: 2,678 · -18.6%
• By 2100: 2,196 · -33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 2% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Real

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.9) · D 16.1% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -53.0pp · 2024: -66.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.9 2020: R+66.8 2016: R+66.8 2012: R+62.6 2008: R+53.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Current HPI: 149.7889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $119,000 FSBO.com
• 2010-01-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $700 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.