255 Cold Springs Road Rd · Fort Covington, NY 12966

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 174 Days on market

Built 1999 5.21 ac lot ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable country living at a reasonable price! This 1999 single wide manufactured home has been tastefully renovated, and sits on just over 5 acres in a quiet back-road setting. With fresh paint, new flooring, and recessed LED lighting throughout, the rooms are very bright and cheerful. The kitchen has a small breakfast nook, and been given brand new stainless steel appliances. You will love the size of the Primary suite, with plenty of storage. Call today for more details!

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Fresh paint
• New flooring

Tags

• 5 ACRES
• QUIET BACK-ROAD SETTING
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• RECESSED LED LIGHTING
• BREAKFAST NOOK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($361/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Malone Central School District (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #581 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $91,520 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $59,093
• Equity at exit: $94,592

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.87×
• Total profit: $172,502
• Equity at exit: $203,992

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12966

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $915 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,183/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$192
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $877

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-07-23
   status Pending
2. 2025-05-12
   price $105,000
3. 2025-04-30
   price $129,900
4. 2025-03-17
   price $134,900
5. 2025-01-30
   listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,183 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,479 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$296/yr (+$25/mo · 25.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,183
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$879
• − Management: −$879
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$1,419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$341
• After-tax cash flow: $701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malone Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618180
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,681
• Composite: 24.23/100
• National rank: #7725
• State rank: #581 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fort Covington

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,340
• Population (ZIP): 2,962

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 16% Iranian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 10% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.47%
• Current HPI: 297.6735
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-24.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-23 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $105,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $129,900 ACVMLS
• 2025-03-17 Price Changed $134,900 ACVMLS
• 2025-01-30 Listed $139,900 ACVMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,183 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.