1044 W 8th St · Erie, PA 16502

$119,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1900 6,534 sqft lot $60/sqft · 9% above area Est $110k · 9% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

As is. Great for investors. 3 bedrooms, 2 captive rooms. 1 1/2 bath. Newer hot water tank and newer furnace. off street parking. Needs TLC. No washer/dryer but has the hookups on first floor.

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• Off street parking
• Furnace

Tags

• HOT WATER TANK
• FURNACE
• OFF STREET PARKING
• HOOKUPS ON FIRST FLOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $623 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,974/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 1044% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $120k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $112,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.26%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,271
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: 8.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1039 W 7th St	0.05mi	4/1.5	1,872 (-7%)	8mo	$165,000	$88	77
1115 W 10th St	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,126 (+6%)	7mo	$199,500	$94	71
1339 W 10th St	0.44mi	4/1.0	2,078 (+4%)	5mo	$235,000	$113	70
633 W 10th St	0.49mi	4/1.0	2,070 (+3%)	9mo	$50,000	$24	64
1153 W 10th St	0.24mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,812 (-10%)	2mo	$142,000	$78	64
1030 W 10 St	0.15mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,728 (-14%)	11mo	$166,000	$96	56
818 Washington Pl	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,264 (+13%)	7mo	$170,000	$75	52
553 W 9th St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,136 (+6%)	3mo	$87,000	$41	52
608 W 3rd St	0.63mi	4/2.5	1,920 (-4%)	8mo	$159,000	$83	51
512 W 9th St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,138 (+6%)	6mo	$100,000	$47	49
563 W 9th St	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,808 (-10%)	9mo	$200,000	$111	40
905 Walnut St	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,756 (-12%)	8mo	$135,000	$77	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $20,280
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $68,890
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16502

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,974 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,092/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,185

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
729 W 9th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1782	$3,000	$1.68	43d	1	0.32mi
538 W 8th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,650	$0.82	43d	1	0.58mi
1837 W 9th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	43d	1	1.10mi
2702 Raspberry St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,200	$0.60	43d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   As is. Great for investors. 3 bedrooms, 2 captive rooms. 1 1/2 bath. Newer hot water tank and newer furnace. off street parking. Needs TLC. No washer/dryer but has the hookups on first floor.

2. 2026-03-19
   status Active 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   As is. Great for investors. 3 bedrooms, 2 captive rooms. 1 1/2 bath. Newer hot water tank and newer furnace. off street parking. Needs TLC. No washer/dryer but has the hookups on first floor.

3. 2026-03-13
   status Pending 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   As is. Great for investors. 3 bedrooms, 2 captive rooms. 1 1/2 bath. Newer hot water tank and newer furnace. off street parking. Needs TLC. No washer/dryer but has the hookups on first floor.

4. 2026-03-01
   listed $119,900 Active 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   As is. Great for investors. 3 bedrooms, 2 captive rooms. 1 1/2 bath. Newer hot water tank and newer furnace. off street parking. Needs TLC. No washer/dryer but has the hookups on first floor.

5. 2023-05-19
   soldstatus $46,000 Closed
6. 2023-05-01
   status Pending
7. 2023-04-24
   price $44,900
8. 2023-04-20
   price $49,900
9. 2023-03-27
   listed $58,900 Active
10. 2023-02-23
    listed $58,900 Active
11. 2016-09-16
    listed $29,900
12. 2016-03-01
    listed $29,900
13. 2004-12-22
    soldstatus $80,000
14. 1989-07-28
    soldstatus $37,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,092 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,092 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$3,092
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,895
• − Management: −$1,895
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $6,000
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,440
• After-tax cash flow: $6,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,995
• Household income: $38,566
• Rent vs Own: 60.6% rent · 39.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1044.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.73%
• Current HPI: 211.4408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+220.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2026-03-13 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-03-01 Listed $119,900 GEBOR
• 2023-05-19 Sold (MLS) $46,000 GEBOR
• 2023-05-01 Pending — GEBOR
• 2023-04-24 Price Changed $44,900 GEBOR
• 2023-04-20 Price Changed $49,900 GEBOR
• 2023-03-27 Listed $58,900 GEBOR
• 2023-02-23 Listed $58,900 GEBOR
• 2016-09-16 Listed $29,900 GEBOR
• 2016-03-01 Listed $29,900 GEBOR
• 2004-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1989-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $37,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,092 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.