865 Qappuella · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$189,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1998 0.83 ac lot $156/sqft · 48% below area Est $367k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a well maintained manufactured home in a well established subdivision. Located near schools, churches, shopping, banking and recreation, it would make a great starter home or a comfortable home for empty nesters and retirees looking for a laid back lifestyle. The detached shop building is perfect for hobbies, crafts, woodworking or just additional storage. Owner financing is available for qualified buyers.

Key facts

• Near schools
• Manufactured home
• Near shopping

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• DETACHED SHOP BUILDING
• WELL ESTABLISHED SUBDIVISION
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR BANKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.41%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,848
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -48.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-12,850
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,095
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,256/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,493

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $480	-5% $426	+0% $373	+5% $319	+10% $265
Rent	-10% $217	-5% $295	+0% $373	+5% $450	+10% $528
Rate	-1.0pp $468	-0.5pp $421	base $373	+0.5pp $323	+1.0pp $273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    price $189,900 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    This is a well maintained manufactured home in a well established subdivision. Located near schools, churches, shopping, banking and recreation, it would make a great starter home or a comfortable home for empty nesters and retirees looking for a laid back lifestyle. The detached shop building is perfect for hobbies, crafts, woodworking or just additional storage. Owner financing is available for qualified buyers.

15. 2026-04-06
    listed $212,500 New 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    This is a well maintained manufactured home in a well established subdivision. Located near schools, churches, shopping, banking and recreation, it would make a great starter home or a comfortable home for empty nesters and retirees looking for a laid back lifestyle. The detached shop building is perfect for hobbies, crafts, woodworking or just additional storage. Owner financing is available for qualified buyers.

16. 2025-12-16
    soldstatus
17. 2022-06-22
    price $1,450
18. 2012-03-09
    soldstatus
19. 2011-03-15
    soldstatus
20. 2011-03-11
    soldstatus
21. 2003-12-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,256 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,475 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,219/yr (+$185/mo · 176.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,256
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,886
• − Management: −$1,886
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $1,439
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$345
• After-tax cash flow: $4,126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12996.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $189,900 LERA
• 2026-04-06 Listed $212,500 LERA
• 2025-12-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-22 Price Changed $1,450 RENT.
• 2012-03-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-12-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,256 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.