2920 Serenity Ln · Sherman, TX 75090

$254,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily · 163 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $135/sqft · 10% below area Est $285k · 10% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Construction by DR Horton. This beautiful 2 story home offers 5 Bedrooms, 2.5 Bathrooms, and 2 Car Garage. Energy efficient and smart home features included. Call today to schedule an appointment.

Key facts

• New construction
• Energy efficient
• Smart home features

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• ENERGY EFFICIENT
• SMART HOME FEATURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.7% in Sherman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,027 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, schools D-.
• Sherman ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #546 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 479 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,418/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 840% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,391 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.79%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,801
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -10.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2705 N Ricketts St	0.36mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,771 (-6%)	6mo	$294,000	$166	61
810 Sagebrush Trl	0.47mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,017 (+7%)	6mo	$339,990	$169	55
722 Sunflower Trl	0.51mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,098 (+11%)	12mo	$335,000	$160	42
619 Sunflower Trl	0.53mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,098 (+11%)	13mo	$325,000	$155	41
3700 Hickory St	0.54mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,172 (+15%)	4mo	$369,000	$170	40
3612 Hickory St	0.52mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,173 (+15%)	6mo	$350,000	$161	39
803 Sunflower Trl	0.55mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,126 (+12%)	12mo	$345,000	$162	39
611 Sagebrush Trl	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,157 (+14%)	13mo	$329,990	$153	39
3615 Arrowhead Ln	0.56mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,171 (+15%)	5mo	$369,000	$170	38
3512 Cloverleaf Ln	0.49mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,141 (+13%)	15mo	$389,990	$182	38
2305 Ridgewood Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,094 (+11%)	11mo	$350,000	$167	34
712 Chestnut Trl	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,173 (+15%)	15mo	$376,000	$173	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-41,566
• Equity at exit: $38,020

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-54,605
• Equity at exit: $22,047

Cash invested: $71,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75090

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 479
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,418 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$319 /mo · $3,825/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,284

Max offer price $254,990

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $195	+0% $106	+5% $18	+10% $-70
Rent	-10% $-85	-5% $11	+0% $106	+5% $202	+10% $297
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $171	base $106	+0.5pp $40	+1.0pp $-27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,748
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
504 Sagebrush Trl Sherman, TX	5.0	3.0	2472	$2,545	$1.03	45d	1	0.41mi
418 Sagebrush Trl Sherman, TX	5.0	3.0	2472	$2,490	$1.01	45d	1	0.41mi
619 Sagebrush Trl Sherman, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,400	$1.01	45d	1	0.45mi
2429 N Ricketts St Unit NA Sherman, TX	4.0	2.0	1804	$2,200	$1.22	45d	1	0.49mi
609 E McGee St Unit 609 Sherman, TX	4.0	2.5	1600	$1,800	$1.12	45d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,990 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $254,990 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,990 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,990 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,990 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,990 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $254,990 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,990 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $254,990 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $254,990 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $254,990 Active 150 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $254,990 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,990 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,990 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,990 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,990 Active 142 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $259,990 Active 141 DOM
18. 2026-05-07
    price $259,990 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    New Construction by DR Horton. This beautiful 2 story home offers 5 Bedrooms, 2.5 Bathrooms, and 2 Car Garage. Energy efficient and smart home features included. Call today to schedule an appointment.

19. 2026-04-14
    price $274,990 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    New Construction by DR Horton. This beautiful 2 story home offers 5 Bedrooms, 2.5 Bathrooms, and 2 Car Garage. Energy efficient and smart home features included. Call today to schedule an appointment.

20. 2026-01-22
    price $284,990 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    New Construction by DR Horton. This beautiful 2 story home offers 5 Bedrooms, 2.5 Bathrooms, and 2 Car Garage. Energy efficient and smart home features included. Call today to schedule an appointment.

21. 2026-01-09
    listed $279,990 Active 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    New Construction by DR Horton. This beautiful 2 story home offers 5 Bedrooms, 2.5 Bathrooms, and 2 Car Garage. Energy efficient and smart home features included. Call today to schedule an appointment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,283
• − Property taxes: −$3,825
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,322
• − Management: −$2,322
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$2,927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$702
• After-tax cash flow: $1,980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and energy-efficient features. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making it a strong candidate for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls and adding some decorative elements to the kitchen and bathrooms. — Enhances the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, which can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a small outdoor patio or landscaping feature. — Improves the home's curb appeal and can increase its rental value by providing a more inviting outdoor space for tenants.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms to a more durable material. — Bathrooms are a high-traffic area and upgrading the flooring can significantly improve the home's resale value.
• Both Installing smart home features. — Smart home features can increase the home's value by making it more energy-efficient and convenient for both buyers and renters.
• Both Adding a small outdoor patio or landscaping feature. — Improves the home's curb appeal and can increase its rental value by providing a more inviting outdoor space for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls and adding some decorative elements to the kitchen and bathrooms. — Enhances the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, which can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a small outdoor patio or landscaping feature. — Improves the home's curb appeal and can increase its rental value by providing a more inviting outdoor space for tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms to a more durable material. — Bathrooms are a high-traffic area and upgrading the flooring can significantly improve the home's resale value. ↑
• Both Installing smart home features. — Smart home features can increase the home's value by making it more energy-efficient and convenient for both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding a small outdoor patio or landscaping feature. — Improves the home's curb appeal and can increase its rental value by providing a more inviting outdoor space for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sherman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840080
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,587
• Composite: 28.79/100
• National rank: #6665
• State rank: #546 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sherman

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1027
• US rank: #18243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sherman, TX
• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• City population: 54,936
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,594
• Household income: $55,543
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 840.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.00%
• Current HPI: 276.5739
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.70%
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $259,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $274,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $284,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $279,990 NTREIS