1018 N Sonia Ave · Hernando, FL 34453

$267,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,867 sqft · Land · 36 Days on market

Built 2026 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful piece of land. Bring your builder and build your dream home.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Large center island
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• SPLIT-BEDROOM HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• EXTENDED PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pleasant Grove Elementary School (math 61% / reading 58%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 621 students, 67% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,201/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 240% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $152k; list at $268k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,119 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-50,540
• Equity at exit: $39,945

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-53,097
• Equity at exit: $23,163

Cash invested: $75,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34453

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,201 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,018/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,344

Max offer price $251,628

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,975
• Closing costs: $8,037
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
543 N Rooks Ave Inverness, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,900	$1.47	21d	1	0.53mi
2858 E Marcia St Inverness, FL	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,500	$1.40	21d	1	0.53mi
2620 E Newhaven St Inverness, FL	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,400	$1.27	21d	1	0.76mi
815 E Rembrandt Way Unit 424 Inverness, FL	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,850	$1.47	21d	1	1.00mi
3880 E Byrd St Inverness, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,600	$1.16	21d	1	1.19mi
167 N Independence Hwy Inverness, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,800	$1.17	21d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-18
   soldstatus $151,579
2. 2026-02-20
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-15
   listed $267,900 Active
4. 2025-12-17
   soldstatus $15,000
5. 2025-12-16
   soldstatus $15,000 Closed 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   Beautiful piece of land. Bring your builder and build your dream home.

6. 2025-12-05
   listed $16,000 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   Beautiful piece of land. Bring your builder and build your dream home.

7. 2025-12-05
   historical 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   Beautiful piece of land. Bring your builder and build your dream home.

8. 2008-12-23
   soldstatus $6,400
9. 2005-05-04
   soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,007
• − Property taxes: −$4,018
• − Insurance: −$1,340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,113
• − Management: −$2,113
• − Depreciation: −$7,793
• Taxable loss: −$5,970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,433
• After-tax cash flow: $83/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #7137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 17,281
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,621
• Household income: $57,568
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 240.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.32%
• Current HPI: 291.8965
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+742.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $151,579 Public Records
• 2026-02-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listed $267,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2025-12-16 Sold (MLS) $15,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Listed $16,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $6,400 Public Records
• 2005-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $128 · +36.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.