21 Eisenhower Rd · Centereach, NY 11720

$569,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1967 9,148 sqft lot $413/sqft · 16% below area Est $686k · 17% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Impeccably maintained & updated 3/4 bedroom Ranch near the end of a quiet dead-end street! This sun-drenched, open-concept home offers seamless one-level living with a warm, modern-rustic aesthetic. The spacious living & dining areas feature stylish wood-look flooring and a chic accent wall, flowing effortlessly into a large kitchen complete with oak cabinets, quartz countertops, and a double oven (as-is). Sliders open to a massive patio and a beautifully landscaped, fully fenced flat 1/4 acre—perfect for entertaining! Features a king-sized primary suite with a half bath & double closets, a large home office/den, and an updated main bath with a custom rain shower. Pa

Key facts

• Open-concept home
• Oak cabinets
• Large kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT HOME
• LARGE KITCHEN
• OAK CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• DOUBLE OVEN
• MASSIVE PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street parking; Garage with garage door opener; Heated garage; Total parking for 5 vehicles; 1-car garage
• Security: Fire alarm; Smoke detectors; Security lights
• Utilities: PSEG electric; Cesspool sewer; Water available; Cable available; Public trash collection; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled condition; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Awnings; Garden and landscaped front and back yards; Exterior lighting; Mailbox; Rain gutters; Shed(s); Fenced yard with vinyl fencing; Sprinklers in front and rear; Level lot, near school

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Open kitchen; Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (oil); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom and full bath included; Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; High ceilings; Natural woodwork; Open floor plan with open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Recessed lighting; Smart thermostat; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer/dryer hookup in garage; Washer/Dryer hookup (in garage)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $570k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-619 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $461k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $447k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $447k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.8% in Centereach — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#362 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Middle Country Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #217 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Coleman Road School (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 344 students, 31% FRL); Dawnwood Middle School (math 37% / reading 46%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,074 students, 37% FRL); Centereach High School (math 84% / reading 77%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 1,475 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($553k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $447,260 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.65%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $685,552
• List price: $569,900
• Delta: -16.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Elwood Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-1%)	2mo	$680,000	$497	76
1 Washington Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,333 (-3%)	6mo	$720,000	$540	71
42 Holiday Park Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+1%)	4mo	$620,000	$443	64
7 Winston Rd	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,280 (-7%)	4mo	$610,000	$477	61
23 Holiday Park Dr	0.55mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,443 (+5%)	4mo	$525,000	$364	58
358 Eastwood Blvd	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,451 (+5%)	6mo	$640,000	$441	54
21 Jackson Ave	0.39mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (-13%)	4mo	$585,000	$488	50
11 Starfire Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+8%)	8mo	$486,000	$327	49
32 Garden Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-4%)	8mo	$670,000	$508	48
90 Selden Blvd	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,251 (-9%)	2mo	$635,000	$508	48
3 Bellrose Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,545 (+12%)	4mo	$675,000	$437	41
343 Eastwood Blvd	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-13%)	9mo	$645,000	$538	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-131,550
• Equity at exit: $84,974

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-164,479
• Equity at exit: $49,275

Cash invested: $159,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11720

• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,473 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,989
• Tax from tax record: −$926 /mo · $11,111/yr
• Insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$939
• Net cashflow: $-619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,256

Max offer price $460,617

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,475
• Closing costs: $17,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1275 Middle Country Rd Selden, NY	2.0	2.0–2.5	1594	$3,825	$2.40	1d	1	1.25mi
64 Neal Path Centereach, NY	1.0–3.0	2.0	1252	$4,270	$3.41	1d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $569,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $569,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $569,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $569,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $569,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $599,990 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $599,990 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $599,990 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $599,990 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $599,990 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $599,990 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $599,990 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $599,990 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $599,990 Active 1232-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,111 · $926/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,111 · $926/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,923
• − Property taxes: −$11,111
• − Insurance: −$2,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,294
• − Management: −$4,294
• − Depreciation: −$16,579
• Taxable loss: −$17,379
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,171
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middle Country Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619200
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $86,140
• Composite: 52.89/100
• National rank: #1532
• State rank: #217 of 590 in NY

Livability — Centereach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #6174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centereach, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 29,292
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,292
• Household income: $134,898
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 436.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 7% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -633.07%
• Current HPI: 347.7369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $569,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Listed $599,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,111 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.