7228 Orchard Ave · Warren, MI 48091

$64,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1938 3,920 sqft lot $98/sqft · 16% below area Est $78k · 16% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL on this 2-bed home in a strong rental market. This would also be an excellent opportunity for home ownership at great price. The home needs some TLC but lots of equity here for the new owner. Come and turn this good house into a great home or rental. As-Is.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1938
• Listed 118 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $422 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 5.2% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D, employment D.
• Van Dyke Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #512 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 18 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $59,059 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.86%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $77,586
• List price: $64,900
• Delta: -16.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7251 Yacht Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0	670 (+1%)	6mo	$38,500	$57	84
7044 Westminster Ave	0.19mi	2/1.0	700 (+5%)	4mo	$103,000	$147	79
8094 Chalmers Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0	630 (-5%)	6mo	$64,000	$102	72
7084 Rivard Ave	0.39mi	2/1.0	698 (+5%)	3mo	$54,500	$78	70
21832 Conners Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0	600 (-10%)	3mo	$84,000	$140	70
7540 Prospect Ave	0.16mi	2/1.0	576 (-13%)	5mo	$38,000	$66	66
8477 Prospect Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0	696 (+5%)	1mo	$90,000	$129	64
8101 Rivard Ave	0.52mi	2/2.0	616 (-7%)	0mo	$75,000	$122	59
7204 Continental Ave	0.66mi	2/1.5	732 (+10%)	1mo	$82,500	$113	49
8701 Toepfer Rd	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	720 (+8%)	3mo	$80,000	$111	45
8284 Dodge Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	740 (+11%)	2mo	$100,000	$135	43
20225 Terrel St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	757 (+14%)	4mo	$43,000	$57	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $15,645
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $45,344
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48091

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,188 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,793/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $654

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $459	-5% $440	+0% $422	+5% $404	+10% $385
Rent	-10% $328	-5% $375	+0% $422	+5% $469	+10% $516
Rate	-1.0pp $455	-0.5pp $438	base $422	+0.5pp $405	+1.0pp $388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7275 Chalmers Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	703	$1,200	$1.71	25d	1	0.12mi
7033 Westminster Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	561	$1,050	$1.87	44d	1	0.19mi
8036 Hupp Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	680	$1,150	$1.69	44d	1	0.37mi
7605 Jackson Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	600	$1,165	$1.94	25d	1	0.37mi
8103 Lozier Ave Unit 2 Warren, MI	1.0	1.0	600	$650	$1.08	44d	1	0.83mi
11236 Studebaker Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	672	$1,175	$1.75	44d	1	0.93mi
11130 Stephens Rd Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	0d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,900 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $64,900 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $64,900 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,900 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,900 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,900 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-03-03
    soldstatus $100,000
16. 2026-02-20
    listed $64,900 Active 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL on this 2-bed home in a strong rental market. This would also be an excellent opportunity for home ownership at great price. The home needs some TLC but lots of equity here for the new owner. Come and turn this good house into a great home or rental. As-Is.

17. 2026-02-20
    listed $64,900 Active 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL on this 2-bed home in a strong rental market. This would also be an excellent opportunity for home ownership at great price. The home needs some TLC but lots of equity here for the new owner. Come and turn this good house into a great home or rental. As-Is.

18. 2026-02-10
    soldstatus $90,000
19. 2024-03-24
    historical $1,100
20. 2023-11-06
    listed $1,100
21. 2023-02-28
    soldstatus $50,000
22. 2023-02-20
    soldstatus $50,000 Sold
23. 2023-02-20
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed
24. 2023-02-13
    status Pending
25. 2023-02-13
    status Pending
26. 2023-01-28
    listed $55,000 Active
27. 2023-01-27
    historical
28. 2023-01-27
    listed $55,000 Active
29. 2023-01-27
    historical
30. 2022-12-29
    listed $57,200 Active
31. 2022-12-28
    historical
32. 2022-12-28
    listed $57,200 Active
33. 2022-12-28
    historical
34. 2022-12-14
    status Active
35. 2022-12-14
    status Active
36. 2022-12-10
    historical
37. 2022-12-10
    historical
38. 2022-11-29
    listed $57,300 Active
39. 2022-11-29
    historical
40. 2022-11-29
    listed $57,300 Active
41. 2022-11-29
    historical
42. 2022-11-16
    listed $57,400 Active
43. 2022-11-16
    historical
44. 2022-11-16
    listed $57,400 Active
45. 2022-11-16
    historical
46. 2022-10-28
    soldstatus $40,000
47. 2022-10-20
    listed $59,900 Active
48. 2022-10-20
    listed $59,900 Active
49. 2007-01-02
    historical
50. 2006-09-12
    listed $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,793 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,793 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$1,793
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,141
• − Management: −$1,141
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $4,337
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,041
• After-tax cash flow: $4,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Dyke Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634680
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,231
• Composite: 10.46/100
• National rank: #9784
• State rank: #512 of 540 in MI

Livability — Warren

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4491

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, MI
• County: Macomb County · 638,552 people
• City population: 114,937
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 30,696
• Household income: $54,230
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1296.0

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 25% Asian 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.66%
• Current HPI: 177.9273
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.35%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+171.0% since first listed

42 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2026-02-20 Listed $64,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-20 Listed $64,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-24 Rental Removed $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2023-11-06 Listed for Rent $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2023-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-20 Sold (MLS) $50,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-02-20 Sold (MLS) $50,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-02-13 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-02-13 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-01-28 Listed $55,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-01-27 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-01-27 Listed $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-01-27 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-12-29 Listed $57,200 REALCOMP
• 2022-12-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-12-28 Listed $57,200 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-12-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-12-14 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-12-14 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2022-12-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-12-10 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-11-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-11-29 Listed $57,300 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-11-29 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-11-29 Listed $57,300 REALCOMP
• 2022-11-16 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-11-16 Listed $57,400 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-11-16 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-11-16 Listed $57,400 REALCOMP
• 2022-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-20 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-10-20 Listed $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-01-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-09-12 Listed $54,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-06-28 Sold (MLS) $54,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-06-25 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-05-13 Listed $54,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1996-01-16 Sold (MLS) $30,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1995-12-22 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1995-07-30 Listed $36,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,793 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.