1529 Private Rd · Prescott, AZ 86301

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 743 sqft · Manufactured · 226 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition $160/sqft · 61% below area ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spottless, like new home in over 55 mobil park! Lived in less than one year. Great opportunity to dine with views of the picturesque Dells, walk to Willow Lake and other nearby hiking trails that lead to the Dells. Choose to walk to the Zoo or take your furry friend to the dog park, it is all right here. No need to be bored! Built in 2024 means maintenance free living for your start. Time to enjoy an active life in Prescott's natural beauty.

Key facts

• Nearby hiking trails
• Dog park
• Walk to willow lake

Tags

• WALK TO WILLOW LAKE
• NEARBY HIKING TRAILS
• WALK TO THE ZOO
• DOG PARK
• MAINTENANCE FREE LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $405 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.4% in Prescott — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#22 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, amenities A, schools A-; Watch: cost of living D, commute F.
• Prescott Unified District (4466) (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #70 of 249 in AZ (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 486 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.57%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,422
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -60.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,270
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $18,795
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86301

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,553 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $487	-5% $446	+0% $405	+5% $364	+10% $322
Rent	-10% $282	-5% $343	+0% $405	+5% $466	+10% $527
Rate	-1.0pp $465	-0.5pp $435	base $405	+0.5pp $374	+1.0pp $342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 226 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 221 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 210 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 209 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 208 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 207 DOM
16. 2025-10-29
    listed $119,000 Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Spottless, like new home in over 55 mobil park! Lived in less than one year. Great opportunity to dine with views of the picturesque Dells, walk to Willow Lake and other nearby hiking trails that lead to the Dells. Choose to walk to the Zoo or take your furry friend to the dog park, it is all right here. No need to be bored! Built in 2024 means maintenance free living for your start. Time to enjoy an active life in Prescott's natural beauty.

17. 2025-02-21
    status Pending
18. 2025-01-28
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2024-08-11
    price $139,000
20. 2024-07-09
    price $149,000
21. 2024-06-07
    price $159,000
22. 2024-04-18
    listed $169,000 Active
23. 2024-02-07
    historical
24. 2023-11-18
    listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,491
• − Management: −$1,491
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $3,148
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$756
• After-tax cash flow: $4,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding a small deck or patio area — A small deck or patio can increase the home's livability and add value for both resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a small deck or patio area — A small deck or patio can increase the home's livability and add value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prescott Unified District (4466)
• NCES district ID: 0406730
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 33.47/100
• National rank: #5450
• State rank: #70 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Prescott

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #22
• US rank: #5579

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living D Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prescott, AZ
• County: Yavapai County · 190,406 people
• City population: 66,312
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 27,076
• Household income: $72,652
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1225.0

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.55%
• Current HPI: 350.7591
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-29.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-29 Listed $119,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-21 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-28 Contingent — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-11 Price Changed $139,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-09 Price Changed $149,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-07 Price Changed $159,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-18 Listed $169,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-07 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-18 Listed $169,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid