1136 Miller Rd · Orion, MI 48362

$320,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1975 6,534 sqft lot Est $304k · 5% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 4-bedroom, 2 full-bath home in sought-after Lake Orion with optional Bunny Run Association membership offering lake access. The updated kitchen features granite countertops, vaulted ceilings, and all appliances included. Built-ins throughout the home provide added storage and organization. Major mechanical updates are already complete with a new furnace, A/C, and whole-house generator for added peace of mind. Generous living spaces lead to a deck overlooking the beautifully landscaped, fully fenced backyard — a private setting perfect for entertaining or simply relaxing outdoors.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Updated kitchen
• Lake access

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• BUILT-INS
• NEW FURNACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located near Miller Rd / S Conklin Rd
• HOA & community: Homeowners association; Subdivision: BUNNY RUN COUNTRY CLUB ANNEX

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Built with above-grade finished living area
• Exterior features: Deck; Lot approximately 60 x 110

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Disposal; Water softener (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $637 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $320k).
• Recommended offer: $315k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $146k; list at $320k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.53%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,552
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1155 Seabury Dr	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,568 (-4%)	3mo	$315,000	$201	84
55 Mouton Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-13%)	5mo	$150,000	$106	65
293 Clairemont Dr	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,716 (+5%)	7mo	$320,000	$186	64
490 Glenn Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,785 (+9%)	1mo	$350,000	$196	56
506 N Conklin Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,843 (+13%)	5mo	$229,900	$125	53
1379 Walter S Hall Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,515 (-7%)	10mo	$281,400	$186	52
577 Bagley St	0.53mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,526 (-6%)	8mo	$330,100	$216	50
132 Florence St	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,387 (-15%)	3mo	$335,000	$242	47
216 E Flint St	0.73mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,536 (-6%)	8mo	$278,000	$181	40
1373 Joan Dr	0.53mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,853 (+14%)	8mo	$334,500	$181	39
388 Norland St	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,390 (-15%)	6mo	$198,000	$142	38
400 E Flint St	0.64mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,872 (+15%)	4mo	$290,000	$155	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-11,405
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $41,888
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48362

• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,305 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,956/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$694
• Net cashflow: $637

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,499

Max offer price $320,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
733 Luna Ct Lake Orion, MI	3.0	1.5	1177	$2,695	$2.29	19d	1	0.33mi
120 S Broadway St Lake Orion, MI	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,950	$2.77	14d	1	0.90mi
442 Mystic Cove Ln Lake Orion, MI	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1989	$5,350	$2.69	1d	4	1.05mi
711 Kimberly Lake Orion, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	985	$1,149	$1.17	1d	6	1.34mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $320,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $320,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,956 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,442 · $287/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,486/yr (+$124/mo · 76.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$1,956
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,173
• − Management: −$3,173
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable income: $2,525
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$606
• After-tax cash flow: $7,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Orion

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,401
• Population (ZIP): 14,746

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.96%
• Current HPI: 182.3653
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+364.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $320,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $320,000 REALCOMP
• 2002-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $146,000 Public Records
• 2002-03-25 Sold (MLS) $146,000 REALCOMP
• 2002-02-10 Listed $147,000 REALCOMP
• 2002-02-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2002-02-06 Listed $147,000 REALCOMP
• 2002-01-31 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2001-10-31 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2001-10-02 Listed $147,000 REALCOMP
• 2001-07-21 Listed $149,900 REALCOMP
• 1999-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $137,000 Public Records
• 1999-08-18 Sold (MLS) $136,000 REALCOMP
• 1999-07-07 Listed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 1992-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $68,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,956 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.