130 Trails End Cir · Millsap, TX 76066

$164,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily · 79 Days on market

Built 1983 Good condition 1.05 ac lot $210/sqft · 6% below area Est $175k · 6% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Impressive two bedroom one bath home with large living area open to eat in kitchen with gas range on just over 1 fenced acre that has a seasonal creek at rear of property. Full washer and dryer hook ups are located in hallway right between the two bedrooms .One thing unique about property are the small boxed in trees inside fence and just outside of fence lines that have a timed sprinkler system to each boxed in tree. There are two storage buildings, one with electricity that would make a small shop for dad and his tools. It's unrestricted and minutes to major highways to the bigger cities of Mineral Wells and Weatherford and that means shopping too.

Key facts

• Large living area
• Eat in kitchen
• Seasonal creek

Tags

• LARGE LIVING AREA
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• GAS RANGE
• SEASONAL CREEK
• TIMED SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• STORAGE BUILDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $164k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-551/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 1.3% in Millsap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,044 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Millsap ISD (rural): math 53% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #147 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Millsap El (math 48% / reading 48%, grade D, #971 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 531 students, 51% FRL); Millsap Middle (math 62% / reading 47%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 236 students, 46% FRL); Millsap H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 332 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,085 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,900
• List price: $164,500
• Delta: -2.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-29,562
• Equity at exit: $24,527

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-29,426
• Equity at exit: $14,223

Cash invested: $46,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76066

• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,381 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$863
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,468/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,439

Max offer price $157,851

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $68	-5% $11	+0% $-46	+5% $-103	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-155	-5% $-100	+0% $-46	+5% $9	+10% $63
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $-4	base $-46	+0.5pp $-89	+1.0pp $-132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,125
• Closing costs: $4,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $164,500 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,900 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    price $169,900 663-char remark

    Show marketing remark (663 chars)

    Impressive two bedroom one bath home with large living area open to eat in kitchen with gas range on just over 1 fenced acre that has a seasonal creek at rear of property. Full washer and dryer hook ups are located in hallway right between the two bedrooms .One thing unique about property are the small boxed in trees inside fence and just outside of fence lines that have a timed sprinkler system to each boxed in tree. There are two storage buildings, one with electricity that would make a small shop for dad and his tools. It's unrestricted and minutes to major highways to the bigger cities of Mineral Wells and Weatherford and that means shopping too.

17. 2026-04-03
    listed $174,500 Active 663-char remark

    Show marketing remark (663 chars)

    Impressive two bedroom one bath home with large living area open to eat in kitchen with gas range on just over 1 fenced acre that has a seasonal creek at rear of property. Full washer and dryer hook ups are located in hallway right between the two bedrooms .One thing unique about property are the small boxed in trees inside fence and just outside of fence lines that have a timed sprinkler system to each boxed in tree. There are two storage buildings, one with electricity that would make a small shop for dad and his tools. It's unrestricted and minutes to major highways to the bigger cities of Mineral Wells and Weatherford and that means shopping too.

18. 2025-09-30
    historical
19. 2025-08-25
    price $179,500
20. 2025-03-29
    listed $183,750 Active
21. 2024-11-27
    price $189,999
22. 2024-10-22
    price $199,000
23. 2024-10-05
    listed $209,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,215
• − Property taxes: −$2,468
• − Insurance: −$822
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,326
• − Management: −$1,326
• − Depreciation: −$4,785
• Taxable loss: −$3,371
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$809
• After-tax cash flow: $258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a fenced yard with trees and a modern kitchen. The property is in a good location with access to major highways and shopping centers. The home is move-in ready and has good potential for rental or resale.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millsap ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830870
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,988
• Composite: 44.21/100
• National rank: #2850
• State rank: #147 of 826 in TX

Livability — Millsap

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1044
• US rank: #18563

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,615

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 19% Hispanic / Latino 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% European 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.09%
• Current HPI: 140.3208
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $169,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $174,500 NTREIS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $179,500 NTREIS
• 2025-03-29 Listed $183,750 NTREIS
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $189,999 NTREIS
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2024-10-05 Listed $209,000 NTREIS