16796 S Redondo Cir · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1987 0.29 ac lot Est $176k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Immaculate home a rare value! Seller to pay concessions with acceptable offer. VA loan eligible. Huge 12,000 sq ft lot with endless possibilities workshop, business space, artist studio, equipment storage, gardening or even backyard chickens! Located just 1 mile from I-17 with easy access to Prescott, Prescott Valley, Sedona, Flagstaff and Phoenix while enjoying cooler temps and fresh air. Private split floor plan featuring a spacious primary suite, generous second bedroom and bath, and modern great room. Recent upgrades include NEW HVAC, windows, flooring, kitchen cabinets, birch countertops, fixtures, vanities, doors, refrigerator, stove, exterior stairs, siding, rain gutters, and carport. Roof replaced in 2021. Quiet, lightly traveled location!

Key facts

• 12
• Business space
• 000 sq ft lot

Tags

• 12
• 000 SQ FT LOT
• WORKSHOP
• BUSINESS SPACE
• ARTIST STUDIO
• EQUIPMENT STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Private water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Composition roof; Building area per builder
• Exterior features: Natural desert landscaping in the back; No yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Mini-split heating and cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Master bedroom with full bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookup (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-179 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (15.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.0% in Cordes Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayer Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 93% FRL); Mayer High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 200 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $165k implies a 563% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,112 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.43%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,018
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20850 E Cedar Dr	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,184 (+12%)	3mo	$74,000	$63	52
20829 E Valley View Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,149 (+9%)	20mo	$229,500	$200	52
16029 S Apache Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,061 (+1%)	12mo	$230,000	$217	50
20719 E Marble Canyon Way	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	925 (-12%)	22mo	$145,000	$157	46
20941 E Deer Valley Ln	0.46mi	2/2.0	961 (-9%)	22mo	$155,000	$161	45
20941 E Deer Valley Ln #721	0.46mi	2/2.0	961 (-9%)	22mo	$155,000	$161	45
16057 S Indian Bend Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,081 (+3%)	15mo	$252,500	$234	44
16382 S Rolling Ridge Dr	0.50mi	2/2.0	925 (-12%)	20mo	$150,000	$162	39
16071 S Yavapai Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	925 (-12%)	5mo	$52,000	$56	38
20805 E Black Rock Trl	0.60mi	2/2.0	961 (-9%)	24mo	$234,000	$243	38
16070 S Indian Bend Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	898 (-15%)	7mo	$150,000	$167	35
16094 S Yavapai Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,203 (+14%)	23mo	$269,900	$224	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $78,757
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $241,462
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,757 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,983

Max offer price $139,112

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-65	-5% $-122	+0% $-179	+5% $-236	+10% $-293
Rent	-10% $-318	-5% $-248	+0% $-179	+5% $-110	+10% $-40
Rate	-1.0pp $-96	-0.5pp $-137	base $-179	+0.5pp $-222	+1.0pp $-265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-06-22
   statusdays on market $165,000 Pending 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $165,000 Active 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (810 chars)

    Immaculate home a rare value! Seller to pay concessions with acceptable offer!VA loan eligible! Huge 12,000 sq ft lot with endless possibilities like a workshop, business space, artist studio, equipment storage, gardening or even backyard chickens! Located just 1 mile from I-17 with easy access to Prescott, Prescott Valley, Sedona, Flagstaff & Phoenix while enjoying cooler temps & fresh air. Private split floor plan featuring a spacious primary suite, generous second bedroom & bath & modern great room. Recent upgrades NEW HVAC whole house duct system for optimum efficiency, windows, flooring, kitchen cabinets, birch countertops, fixtures, vanities, doors, refrigerator, stove, exterior stairs, siding, rain gutters, and carport. Roof replaced in 2021. Quiet, lightly traveled location!

18. 2026-05-07
    listed $165,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (810 chars)

    Immaculate home a rare value! Seller to pay concessions with acceptable offer!VA loan eligible! Huge 12,000 sq ft lot with endless possibilities like a workshop, business space, artist studio, equipment storage, gardening or even backyard chickens! Located just 1 mile from I-17 with easy access to Prescott, Prescott Valley, Sedona, Flagstaff & Phoenix while enjoying cooler temps & fresh air. Private split floor plan featuring a spacious primary suite, generous second bedroom & bath & modern great room. Recent upgrades NEW HVAC whole house duct system for optimum efficiency, windows, flooring, kitchen cabinets, birch countertops, fixtures, vanities, doors, refrigerator, stove, exterior stairs, siding, rain gutters, and carport. Roof replaced in 2021. Quiet, lightly traveled location!

19. 2026-05-07
    listed $165,000 Active 810-char remark

    Show marketing remark (810 chars)

    Immaculate home a rare value! Seller to pay concessions with acceptable offer!VA loan eligible! Huge 12,000 sq ft lot with endless possibilities like a workshop, business space, artist studio, equipment storage, gardening or even backyard chickens! Located just 1 mile from I-17 with easy access to Prescott, Prescott Valley, Sedona, Flagstaff & Phoenix while enjoying cooler temps & fresh air. Private split floor plan featuring a spacious primary suite, generous second bedroom & bath & modern great room. Recent upgrades NEW HVAC whole house duct system for optimum efficiency, windows, flooring, kitchen cabinets, birch countertops, fixtures, vanities, doors, refrigerator, stove, exterior stairs, siding, rain gutters, and carport. Roof replaced in 2021. Quiet, lightly traveled location!

20. 2026-03-20
    historical
21. 2026-03-20
    historical
22. 2026-03-20
    historical
23. 2026-02-27
    price $165,000
24. 2026-02-27
    price $165,000
25. 2026-02-27
    price $165,000
26. 2026-02-04
    price $175,000
27. 2026-02-04
    price $175,000
28. 2026-02-04
    price $175,000
29. 2026-01-03
    price $183,000
30. 2026-01-03
    price $183,000
31. 2026-01-03
    price $183,000
32. 2025-12-01
    price $194,500
33. 2025-12-01
    price $194,500
34. 2025-10-05
    price $207,000
35. 2025-10-05
    price $207,000
36. 2025-10-05
    price $207,000
37. 2025-09-12
    price $217,000
38. 2025-09-12
    price $217,000
39. 2025-09-12
    price $217,000
40. 2025-08-19
    listed $227,500 Active
41. 2025-08-19
    listed $227,500 Active
42. 2025-08-19
    listed $227,500 Active
43. 2015-07-31
    soldstatus $24,900
44. 2011-09-09
    soldstatus $21,000
45. 2004-10-10
    historical
46. 2004-09-21
    soldstatus $40,000
47. 2004-09-21
    soldstatus $100,000
48. 2004-08-10
    listed $43,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$5,944
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,687
• − Management: −$1,687
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$4,752
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,140
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+275.4% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $165,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $165,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $165,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-20 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $165,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $165,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $165,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $175,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $175,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $183,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $183,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $183,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $194,500 ARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $194,500 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $207,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $207,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $207,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $217,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $217,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $217,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-19 Listed $227,500 ARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $227,500 MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-19 Listed $227,500 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-31 Sold (MLS) $24,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-21 Sold (MLS) $40,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-10 Listed $43,950 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $263 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.