15634 County Road 1 #24 · Fifty Lakes, MN 56448

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 607 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 2001 Fair condition 3,920 sqft lot $95/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

2 bedroom 1 bath manufactured cabin in the Open Gate Association this unit comes totally furnished ready for you to move in and enjoy. 700 feet of shared lake-shore, excellent sand beach swimming area, private boat landing, boat slip, great fishing crystal clear water connects to West Fox lake for more boating and fishing. This is a great recreational area with many nearby golf courses, snowmobile trails, lots of state land for hiking, hunting, riding ATVs. Close to Crosslake.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 2001
• Listed 48 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner lot; Unpaved street frontage; Access to association waterfront (approximately 700 feet of waterfront; excellent sand lake bottom; waterfront elevation 4-10)
• HOA & community: Open Gate Association; Monthly association fee of $95; Association amenities include beach, boat slip, and dock; Association fee covers beach access, dock, sewer, and water; Association maintains roads

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Well with 4-inch submersible and shared system; Shared septic (compliant); 100 amp electric service; Electric fuel
• Home design: Residential property; One story; Manufactured home
• Construction: Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; 607 above-grade building area
• Exterior features: Deck and side porch; Metal exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: No heating system specified; No cooling system specified
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Microwave; Range
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($793/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($860 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#799 in MN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, cost of living D.
• Pine River-Backus School District (rural): math 26% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #250 of 301 in MN (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 420 units permitted in Crow Wing County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Crow Wing County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.77%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $25,288
• Equity at exit: $46,462

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $71,406
• Equity at exit: $83,672

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56448

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $860 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$95
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $776

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $95 · $1,140/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $75,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $80,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    listed $85,000 Active
18. 2025-12-12
    historical
19. 2025-09-03
    price $85,000
20. 2025-08-11
    price $90,000
21. 2025-08-11
    price $9,000
22. 2025-08-11
    listed $90 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$826
• − Management: −$826
• − HOA: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable loss: −$355
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$85
• After-tax cash flow: $878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, and paint the interior. The home is located in a recreational area with access to a lake, which could be a selling point for potential buyers.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen flooring — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom flooring — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate interior walls — dated paint and ceiling texture
• Moderate exterior siding — moderate wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would increase both resale and rental value
• Both replace bathroom fixtures and flooring — modernizing the bathroom would increase both resale and rental value
• Both paint interior walls and ceiling — updating the interior would increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen flooring · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom flooring · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
interior walls · dated paint and ceiling texture	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · moderate wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$18,000–90,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both replace bathroom fixtures and flooring — modernizing the bathroom would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both paint interior walls and ceiling — updating the interior would increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine River-Backus School District
• NCES district ID: 2728970
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,909
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6239
• State rank: #250 of 301 in MN

Livability — Fifty Lakes

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #799
• US rank: #20353

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A- Employment C+ Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fifty Lakes, MN
• City population: 412
• Population (ZIP): 412

Population outlook (Crow Wing County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,187 people
• By 2030: 64,057 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 62,470 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 59,064 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 48,738 · -24.1%
• By 2100: 36,112 · -43.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scottish 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Crow Wing

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.6% · R 65.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.7pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+29.7 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.86%
• Current HPI: 222.18
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+844.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $85,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $85,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $90,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $9,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-11 Listed $90 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid