178 2nd St NW · Graysville, AL 35073

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1948 0.65 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

none

Key facts

• 0.65 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1948

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $505 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#321 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Minor Community School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #568 of 627 statewide, top 94%, 409 students, 84% FRL); Minor High School (math 4% / reading 8%, grade F, #275 of 305 statewide, top 90%, 915 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 49% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 20% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 5603% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.87%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,984
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 2nd St NW	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,290 (-14%)	7mo	$160,500	$124	62
624 Windsor Dr NE	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-7%)	4mo	$169,500	$121	62
499 3rd St NW	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+8%)	22mo	$206,000	$126	53
282 8th St NE	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,500 (-0%)	14mo	$178,000	$119	46
588 S Main St	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,690 (+12%)	1mo	$130,000	$77	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.12% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $45,737
• Equity at exit: $38,551

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.35×
• Total profit: $112,367
• Equity at exit: $63,475

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35073

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,224 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $447/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $585

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
118 3rd St NW Graysville, AL	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,300	$0.95	1d	1	0.12mi
335 1st Ave NW Graysville, AL	3.0	2.0	1173	$1,200	$1.02	10d	1	0.18mi
335 1st Ave NW Graysville, AL	3.0	1.0	1173	$1,200	$1.02	1d	1	0.18mi
215 2nd Pl SW Graysville, AL	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,150	$0.88	2d	1	0.31mi
167 2nd St SE Graysville, AL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,100	$1.02	1d	1	0.39mi
958 S Main St Graysville, AL	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,285	$0.97	43d	1	1.01mi
908 9th St SE Graysville, AL	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,250	$1.09	43d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-06-18
   soldstatus $162,750
2. 2025-06-05
   soldstatus $162,750 4-char remark

   Show marketing remark (4 chars)

   none

3. 2025-04-25
   historical $1,265
4. 2025-04-16
   price $1,265
5. 2025-04-04
   listed $1,315
6. 2025-03-26
   listed $162,750 4-char remark

   Show marketing remark (4 chars)

   none

7. 2025-01-07
   status Pending
8. 2024-11-20
   listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $447 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $447 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$447
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,175
• − Management: −$1,175
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $5,134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,232
• After-tax cash flow: $4,831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Graysville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #321
• US rank: #19807

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Graysville, AL
• Population (ZIP): 2,839

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 27% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.12%
• Current HPI: 176.8227
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+117.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $162,750 Public Records
• 2025-06-05 Sold (MLS) $162,750 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-04-25 Rental Removed $1,265 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $1,265 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-04-04 Listed for Rent $1,315 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-03-26 Listed $162,750 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-01-07 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-11-20 Listed $75,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

-3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $447 · -37.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.