2410 Lancaster Dr SE #359 · Salem, OR 97317

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,414 sqft · Manufactured · 410 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $127/sqft · 38% above area Est $130k · 38% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New 2023 3-bedroom 2 bathroom now available! Home features a beautiful kitchen with a pantry, spacious counter space, stainless steel appliances and a deep kitchen sink. The living room and kitchen create a nice great room so everyone can enjoy those high ceilings and natural light. Home has a den for use as an office, craft room, the possibilities are endless! The master bedroom is very spacious with lots of light, high ceilings and a walk-in closet. The master bathroom has dual sinks, a walk-in shower and tons of storage. Outside, you have a large 6ft. covered porch, carport with long driveway and a storage shed. The space also has low maintenance landscaping. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Great room
• Den

Tags

• SPACIOUS COUNTER SPACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DEEP KITCHEN SINK
• GREAT ROOM
• DEN
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Miller Elementary School (361 students, 76% FRL); Houck Middle School (949 students, 74% FRL); North Salem High School (2,239 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 53% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 410 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 410 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.23%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,000
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: 38.38%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2410 Lancaster Dr SE #962	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-1%)	8mo	$75,000	$53	87
2232 42nd Ave SE #704	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-9%)	1mo	$58,000	$45	75
3100 Turner Rd SE #625	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-3%)	1mo	$235,000	$171	64
3236 Turner Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+2%)	8mo	$125,000	$87	59
3100 Turner Rd S #220	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-3%)	1mo	$199,500	$146	57
3100 Turner Rd SE #311	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-3%)	10mo	$155,000	$113	55
3180 Turner Rd SE	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+2%)	5mo	$25,000	$17	54
3100 Turner Rd SE #206	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+2%)	8mo	$195,000	$135	53
3100 Turner (620) Rd SE	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+10%)	1mo	$200,000	$128	50
3100 Turner Rd SE #620	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+10%)	1mo	$200,000	$128	50
3100 Turner Rd SE #424	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-3%)	10mo	$217,500	$159	50
3340 Turner Rd SE	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+15%)	3mo	$128,000	$79	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-21,150
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-9,893
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97317

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,745 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $198	+0% $136	+5% $73	+10% $11
Rent	-10% $-2	-5% $67	+0% $136	+5% $205	+10% $274
Rate	-1.0pp $226	-0.5pp $181	base $136	+0.5pp $89	+1.0pp $42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2728 Lancaster Dr SE Unit 2728-14 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,195	$1.20	45d	1	0.13mi
4243 Campbell Dr SE Unit 4243 Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	936	$1,550	$1.66	15d	1	0.38mi
4665 Campbell Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$2,099	$2.27	15d	1	0.49mi
1447 Connecticut St SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,675	$2.13	45d	1	0.55mi
1569 Whitaker Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	933	$2,299	$2.46	15d	1	0.87mi
1029 Raffon Ct SE Unit AR7171-3 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	927	$1,700	$1.83	25d	1	0.90mi
4976 Turquoise Ave SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,495	$1.63	15d	5	0.95mi
4776 Buffalo Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1369	$2,150	$1.57	45d	1	1.02mi
4807 Chinook Ct SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1104	$2,200	$1.99	15d	1	1.14mi
5192 Caplinger Rd SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,802	$1.94	15d	25	1.25mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,958	$2.03	15d	26	1.26mi
3828 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	15d	1	1.29mi
3822 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	25d	1	1.29mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4435-201 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	888	$1,525	$1.72	25d	1	1.47mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4437-206 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	932	$1,525	$1.64	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 410 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 407 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 406 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 405 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 404 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 402 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 399 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 398 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 397 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 396 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 392 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 391 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 390 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 389 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 388 DOM
16. 2025-09-06
    price $199,900 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    New 2023 3-bedroom 2 bathroom now available! Home features a beautiful kitchen with a pantry, spacious counter space, stainless steel appliances and a deep kitchen sink. The living room and kitchen create a nice great room so everyone can enjoy those high ceilings and natural light. Home has a den for use as an office, craft room, the possibilities are endless! The master bedroom is very spacious with lots of light, high ceilings and a walk-in closet. The master bathroom has dual sinks, a walk-in shower and tons of storage. Outside, you have a large 6ft. covered porch, carport with long driveway and a storage shed. The space also has low maintenance landscaping. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

17. 2025-05-19
    status Active 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    New 2023 3-bedroom 2 bathroom now available! Home features a beautiful kitchen with a pantry, spacious counter space, stainless steel appliances and a deep kitchen sink. The living room and kitchen create a nice great room so everyone can enjoy those high ceilings and natural light. Home has a den for use as an office, craft room, the possibilities are endless! The master bedroom is very spacious with lots of light, high ceilings and a walk-in closet. The master bathroom has dual sinks, a walk-in shower and tons of storage. Outside, you have a large 6ft. covered porch, carport with long driveway and a storage shed. The space also has low maintenance landscaping. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

18. 2025-05-17
    historical 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    New 2023 3-bedroom 2 bathroom now available! Home features a beautiful kitchen with a pantry, spacious counter space, stainless steel appliances and a deep kitchen sink. The living room and kitchen create a nice great room so everyone can enjoy those high ceilings and natural light. Home has a den for use as an office, craft room, the possibilities are endless! The master bedroom is very spacious with lots of light, high ceilings and a walk-in closet. The master bathroom has dual sinks, a walk-in shower and tons of storage. Outside, you have a large 6ft. covered porch, carport with long driveway and a storage shed. The space also has low maintenance landscaping. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

19. 2025-05-05
    listed $215,000 Active 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    New 2023 3-bedroom 2 bathroom now available! Home features a beautiful kitchen with a pantry, spacious counter space, stainless steel appliances and a deep kitchen sink. The living room and kitchen create a nice great room so everyone can enjoy those high ceilings and natural light. Home has a den for use as an office, craft room, the possibilities are endless! The master bedroom is very spacious with lots of light, high ceilings and a walk-in closet. The master bathroom has dual sinks, a walk-in shower and tons of storage. Outside, you have a large 6ft. covered porch, carport with long driveway and a storage shed. The space also has low maintenance landscaping. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,676
• − Management: −$1,676
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$1,315
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$316
• After-tax cash flow: $1,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace countertops — Modern countertops can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can improve convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers/renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Modern countertops can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can improve convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers/renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 25,966
• Household income: $84,393
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -471.73%
• Current HPI: 307.3264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $199,900 Zillow
• 2025-05-19 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-05 Listed $215,000 Zillow