533 Robison Dr · Birmingham, AL 35215

$35,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1955 0.63 ac lot $29/sqft · 69% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment Opportunity

Key facts

• 0.63 acre lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 35 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $728 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.2% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 49% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.09%
• DSCR: 4.96
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,125
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -69.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
808 Meadowbrook Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,112 (-7%)	1mo	$149,900	$135	73
201 Carol Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,096 (-8%)	2mo	$154,000	$141	72
328 Pat Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,244 (+4%)	1mo	$93,500	$75	68
505 Ferndale Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,215 (+2%)	1mo	$92,500	$76	65
900 Charles Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,234 (+4%)	8mo	$119,000	$96	61
321 Joan Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,294 (+9%)	2mo	$121,000	$94	59
204 Boxwood Cir	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,252 (+5%)	4mo	$70,000	$56	58
940 Meadowbrook Dr	0.55mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,149 (-4%)	6mo	$108,000	$94	58
458 Gene Reed Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+13%)	8mo	$145,000	$107	58
827 Hillcrest Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,151 (-3%)	9mo	$157,500	$137	54
936 Parkway Dr	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,062 (-11%)	3mo	$104,500	$98	53
120 Roebuck Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,247 (+5%)	8mo	$105,000	$84	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.16×
• Total profit: $40,737
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.7%
• Equity multiple: 10.74×
• Total profit: $95,423
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,227 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $728

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
529 Robison Dr Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	960	$960	$1.00	21d	1	0.02mi
628 Annie Laura Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	844	$1,195	$1.42	43d	1	0.15mi
216 Sanford Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1134	$1,200	$1.06	43d	1	0.27mi
201 Rose Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	972	$1,100	$1.13	16d	1	0.33mi
603 Camp Ct Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	43d	1	0.34mi
818 Sunset Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	992	$1,000	$1.01	43d	1	0.36mi
832 Meadowbrook Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,225	$1.00	23d	1	0.38mi
912 Meadowbrook Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1178	$1,100	$0.93	43d	1	0.45mi
932 Five Mile Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,175	$0.98	19d	1	0.48mi
945 Elizabeth Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1227	$1,125	$0.92	3d	1	0.49mi
726 Orchard Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,095	$0.98	43d	1	0.50mi
940 Meadowbrook Dr Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1149	$1,300	$1.13	43d	1	0.54mi
9228 Brookhurst Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1146	$999	$0.87	43d	1	0.61mi
736 Gene Reed Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,220	$0.90	43d	1	0.64mi
9844 Greenlee Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1046	$950	$0.91	43d	1	0.69mi
221 Lawson Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1102	$1,325	$1.20	23d	1	0.78mi
252 Westwood Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1124	$1,400	$1.25	1d	1	0.82mi
204 McCormick Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	880	$980	$1.11	3d	1	0.83mi
957 Hickory Cir Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,195	$0.88	3d	1	0.83mi
600 Sundale Dr Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	950	$800	$0.84	43d	1	0.89mi
208 Sam Pate Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	988	$1,385	$1.40	2d	1	0.89mi
520 Camellia Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,100	$1.04	3d	1	0.89mi
316 Pine St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,100	$0.89	43d	1	0.92mi
209 Tucker Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,100	$1.05	43d	1	0.92mi
252 Meadowdale Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	920	$995	$1.08	43d	1	0.93mi
426 Buckingham Cir Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,013	$0.94	43d	1	0.99mi
1112 Violet Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,600	$1.13	11d	1	1.03mi
241 Mamie Ln Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,495	$1.20	3d	1	1.12mi
848 Old Trail Rd Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	930	$925	$0.99	23d	1	1.12mi
8917 Roebuck Blvd Apt 11 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	880	$725	$0.82	16d	1	1.19mi
837 Wear Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	936	$1,295	$1.38	2d	1	1.21mi
433 Orchid Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1162	$1,255	$1.08	16d	1	1.22mi
217 Killough Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,200	$0.99	14d	1	1.26mi
1108 Sherwood Forest Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1118	$1,370	$1.23	43d	1	1.32mi
120 Shawnee Ln NW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,075	$0.96	43d	1	1.36mi
1028 Broadmoor Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1079	$1,085	$1.01	3d	1	1.44mi
1153 Linwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,295	$1.04	3d	1	1.46mi
925 Eldorado Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1312	$1,231	$0.94	43d	1	1.46mi
630 Lisa Ln Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1201	$1,095	$0.91	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $35,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-04-28
   price $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,178
• − Management: −$1,178
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $8,691
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,086
• After-tax cash flow: $6,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 43,903
• Household income: $52,793
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1729.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.97%
• Current HPI: 215.0607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $35,000 Greater Alabama MLS