7510 E Thomas Rd #134 · Scottsdale, AZ 85251

$209,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Condo public records · 511 Days on market

Built 1984 $252/sqft · 27% below area Est $288k · 27% under $303/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent location, close to shopping's , downtown restaurants, and much more. Cozy place with upgraded floor, kitchen cabinets, granite countertops, and wood fireplace. Covered patio with tennis court view.

Key facts

• Tennis court view
• Wood fireplace
• Covered patio

Tags

• UPGRADED FLOOR
• KITCHEN CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WOOD FIREPLACE
• COVERED PATIO
• TENNIS COURT VIEW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($474/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 582 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 511 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $63k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $210k implies a 274% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 511 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.81%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,455
• List price: $209,999
• Delta: -27.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-37,274
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-51,471
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85251

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 582
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,994 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $531/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$303
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,944

Max offer price $209,999

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7510 E Thomas Rd #316 Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	832	$3,000	$3.61	44d	1	0.01mi
7510 E Thomas Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	832	$2,298	$2.76	24d	3	0.03mi
7510 E Thomas Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	832	$2,425	$2.91	22d	2	0.03mi
7510 E Thomas Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	832	$2,125	$2.55	16d	4	0.03mi
2992 N Miller Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,045	$1.86	11d	2	0.06mi
2992 N Miller Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,095	$1.93	14d	1	0.06mi
2992 N Miller Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,145	$1.97	15d	1	0.06mi
2992 N Miller Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,045	$1.86	8d	2	0.06mi
2992 N Miller Rd #111 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1113	$2,095	$1.88	20d	1	0.06mi
7502 E Thomas Rd #309 Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	832	$1,518	$1.82	3d	1	0.07mi
7440 E Thomas Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,249	$1.26	3d	10	0.12mi
7550 E Earll Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1047	$1,800	$1.72	17d	1	0.16mi
7494 E Earll Dr #304 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	861	$1,650	$1.92	18d	1	0.18mi
7474 E Earll Dr #309 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	861	$3,000	$3.48	24d	1	0.21mi
7474 E Earll Dr Unit 1545782P Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	850	$2,155	$2.54	17d	1	0.21mi
3015 N Scottsdale Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1060	$1,937	$1.83	1d	18	0.35mi
7791 E Osborn Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,438	$1.53	2d	33	0.39mi
7910 E Thomas Rd Unit 1546194P Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1022	$2,248	$2.20	20d	1	0.49mi
7910 E Thomas Rd Unit 1545699P Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$2,460	$2.24	15d	1	0.49mi
3234 N Scottsdale Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1041	$1,863	$1.79	2d	20	0.50mi
3130 N Hayden Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	563	$1,550	$2.75	20d	2	0.50mi
3620 N Miller Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,395	$1.59	8d	1	0.55mi
3300 N Scottsdale Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,354	$2.69	2d	29	0.57mi
2700 N Hayden Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$1,574	$1.51	3d	10	0.57mi
7021 E Earll Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1130	$4,298	$3.80	3d	3	0.58mi
7021 E Earll Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$4,325	$3.83	44d	4	0.58mi
7021 E Earll Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1130	$4,198	$3.71	5d	4	0.58mi
2929 N 70th St Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$1,463	$1.41	2d	57	0.60mi
2929 N 70th St Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$1,363	$1.31	11d	62	0.60mi
7601 E 2nd St #24 Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	803	$5,000	$6.23	18d	1	0.65mi
7601 E 2nd St Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	752	$3,488	$4.64	4d	2	0.65mi
7601 E 2nd St Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	752	$3,488	$4.64	24d	2	0.65mi
7601 E 2nd St Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	752	$4,000	$5.32	44d	2	0.65mi
3015 N Hayden Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	715	$1,442	$2.02	1d	10	0.65mi
8020 E Thomas Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	824	$1,450	$1.76	24d	3	0.65mi
8020 E Thomas Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	952	$2,399	$2.52	44d	1	0.66mi
8055 E Thomas Rd Unit C107 Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	627	$3,000	$4.78	44d	1	0.67mi
3014 N 70th St Unit C Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	18d	1	0.67mi
7045 E Wilshire Dr #1 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.5	900	$1,400	$1.56	13d	1	0.69mi
8055 E Thomas Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	825	$1,200	$1.45	8d	3	0.71mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $303 · $3,636/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,999 Active 511 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,999 Active 510 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,999 Active 509 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,999 Active 508 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,999 Active 506 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,999 Active 502 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,999 Active 501 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,999 Active 500 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $209,999 Active 497 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,999 Active 496 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,999 Active 495 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,999 Active 494 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,999 Active 493 DOM
14. 2025-11-07
    price $209,999 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Excellent location, close to shopping's , downtown restaurants, and much more. Cozy place with upgraded floor, kitchen cabinets, granite countertops, and wood fireplace. Covered patio with tennis court view.

15. 2025-10-13
    status Active 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Excellent location, close to shopping's , downtown restaurants, and much more. Cozy place with upgraded floor, kitchen cabinets, granite countertops, and wood fireplace. Covered patio with tennis court view.

16. 2025-09-24
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Excellent location, close to shopping's , downtown restaurants, and much more. Cozy place with upgraded floor, kitchen cabinets, granite countertops, and wood fireplace. Covered patio with tennis court view.

17. 2025-06-29
    price $222,000 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Excellent location, close to shopping's , downtown restaurants, and much more. Cozy place with upgraded floor, kitchen cabinets, granite countertops, and wood fireplace. Covered patio with tennis court view.

18. 2025-06-05
    price $239,700 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Excellent location, close to shopping's , downtown restaurants, and much more. Cozy place with upgraded floor, kitchen cabinets, granite countertops, and wood fireplace. Covered patio with tennis court view.

19. 2025-01-23
    listed $272,999 Active 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Excellent location, close to shopping's , downtown restaurants, and much more. Cozy place with upgraded floor, kitchen cabinets, granite countertops, and wood fireplace. Covered patio with tennis court view.

20. 2024-07-18
    historical
21. 2023-09-29
    listed $295,000 Active
22. 2009-10-09
    soldstatus $56,205
23. 2009-09-28
    historical
24. 2009-09-16
    listed $59,900
25. 2005-08-25
    soldstatus $131,000
26. 2005-08-15
    soldstatus $131,000
27. 2005-06-20
    historical
28. 2005-06-08
    listed $132,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $531 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,386 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$855/yr (+$71/mo · 160.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$531
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − HOA: −$3,636
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$2,986
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$717
• After-tax cash flow: $1,191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scottsdale Unified District (4240)
• NCES district ID: 0407570
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,139
• Composite: 48.02/100
• National rank: #2196
• State rank: #30 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsdale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 40,780
• Household income: $92,851
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2259.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -672.80%
• Current HPI: 372.433
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+58.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $209,999 ARMLS
• 2025-10-13 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-06-29 Price Changed $222,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $239,700 ARMLS
• 2025-01-23 Listed $272,999 ARMLS
• 2024-07-18 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-09-29 Listed $295,000 ARMLS
• 2009-10-09 Sold (MLS) $56,205 ARMLS
• 2009-09-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-09-16 Listed $59,900 ARMLS
• 2005-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $131,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-15 Sold (MLS) $131,000 ARMLS
• 2005-06-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-06-08 Listed $132,950 ARMLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $531 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.