Is 1509 Sunset Point Dr in Lakewood Village, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 2.2% cap rate and $-2,554/mo modeled cash flow at a $749,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1509 Sunset Point Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 2.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $3,327/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 28.56

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +13.2/15.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.5/10.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Cash flow +2.6/30.0
Rent growth +2.1/5.0
1% rule +0.0/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$749,900

1509 Sunset Point Dr · Lakewood Village, TX 75068

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,257 sqft · SingleFamily · 170 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 0.38 ac lot Garage $230/sqft · 13% below area Est $858k · 13% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Home office with French doors and formal dining room frames elongated entry. Open family room features sliding glass doors and a wood mantel fireplace. Hardwood floors throughout main living area. Island kitchen features butler's pantry and large walk-in pantry. Game room with French doors off morning area. Primary suite includes primary bath with dual vanity, a freestanding tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two walk-in closets. Guest suite offers private bath. High ceilings, large windows and abundant closet space add to this generous one-story home. Extended covered backyard patio. Mud room off three-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

Key facts

Formal dining room
Island kitchen
Butler's pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $750k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $380k (49.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (55.6% below list).
Recommended offer: $333k (55.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#968 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
Little Elm ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #327 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Oak Point El (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,500 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 952 students, 49% FRL); Little Elm H S (math 28% / reading 49%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,514 students, 52% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1955 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($660k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $102k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $332,731 (55.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 56% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.44% ✗
Cap rate: 2.21%
Cash-on-cash: -14.60%
DSCR: 0.35
GRM: 18.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $857,900
List price: $749,900
Delta: -12.59%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1421 Hidden Cove Dr	0.07mi	4/4.5	3,387 (+4%)	2mo	$957,000	$283	84
1113 Brookwood Dr	0.14mi	4/4.5	3,433 (+5%)	1mo	$880,900	$257	79
2136 Lakeside Dr	0.18mi	4/3.5	3,003 (-8%)	1mo	$874,990	$291	77
2249 Village Trl	0.42mi	4/3.0	3,361 (+3%)	0mo	$801,966	$239	73
2254 Village Trl	0.39mi	4/3.5	3,481 (+7%)	1mo	$930,609	$267	70
1429 Hidden Cove Dr	0.04mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,624 (+11%)	1mo	$885,000	$244	69
1309 Deer Point Dr	0.29mi	4/3.5	2,885 (-11%)	0mo	$749,900	$260	67
870 Highridge Dr	0.49mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,227 (-1%)	2mo	$1,479,000	$458	67
2104 Lakeside Dr	0.30mi	4/3.5	3,692 (+13%)	0mo	$1,036,326	$281	63
189 Enclave Dr	0.63mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,341 (+3%)	1mo	$685,000	$205	57
530 Chatham St	0.62mi	4/4.5	3,507 (+8%)	0mo	$630,865	$180	54
546 Chatham St	0.58mi	4/3.5	2,781 (-15%)	1mo	$573,000	$206	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -47.3%
Equity multiple: -0.40×
Total profit: $-293,871
Equity at exit: $111,813

10-year hold

IRR: —
Equity multiple: -1.39×
Total profit: $-502,820
Equity at exit: $64,838

Cash invested: $209,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 137 active · 61 under contract
Months of supply: 18.3 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $750,900 ($231/sqft)
Median days on market: 236 d
This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +14.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75068

Home prices YoY: -25.5%
Rents YoY: -1.5%
Active inventory: 1955
Price-to-rent: 18.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $3,327 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$3,933
Tax est. 1.5%: −$937 /mo · $11,248/yr
Insurance: −$312
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$699
Net cashflow: $-2,554

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,560

Max offer price $380,359

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,036	-5% $-2,295	+0% $-2,554	+5% $-2,813	+10% $-3,072
Rent	-10% $-2,817	-5% $-2,685	+0% $-2,554	+5% $-2,422	+10% $-2,291
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,176	-0.5pp $-2,363	base $-2,554	+0.5pp $-2,748	+1.0pp $-2,946

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $187,475
Closing costs: $22,497
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
825 Carrie Ln Unit 1028451P Lakewood Village, TX	4.0	3.5	3552	$21,302	$6.00	163d	1	0.53mi
825 Carrie Ln Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	3560	$15,000	$4.21	0d	1	0.53mi
447 Holly Rd Lakewood Village, TX	4.0	3.5	2301	$2,950	$1.28	45d	1	0.72mi
465 Peninsula Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2437	$3,950	$1.62	37d	1	0.75mi
329 Magnolia St Little Elm, TX	5.0	4.5	2536	$3,650	$1.44	0d	1	0.84mi
329 Magnolia St Little Elm, TX	5.0	4.5	2536	$3,650	$1.44	99d	1	0.84mi
329 Magnolia St Little Elm, TX	5.0	4.5	2536	$4,300	$1.70	159d	1	0.84mi
3803 Fishermans Cv Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	2953	$3,000	$1.02	165d	1	0.87mi
136 Glenwood Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	2568	$3,000	$1.17	88d	1	1.04mi
2415 W Eldorado Pkwy Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.5	3384	$2,850	$0.84	7d	1	1.06mi
112 Baker St Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	2568	$2,950	$1.15	109d	1	1.11mi
112 Baker St Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	2568	$2,850	$1.11	104d	1	1.11mi
4412 W Dickson Ln Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.5	2815	$3,000	$1.07	9d	1	1.23mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Property is builder-listed (special listing conditions)Deed restrictions apply
Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage with 3 covered spacesGarage with garage door openerTandem parking configurationDriveway
Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detector(s)
Utilities: City waterIndividual gas meterIndividual water meterUnderground utilitiesSidewalks, curbs, and concrete streetsCommunity mailbox
Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyOne storyNew construction (incomplete)Deed-restricted subdivision (Lakewood Village)Located on a cul-de-sac; few trees
Construction: Brick and rock/stone exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationSmart home features included
Exterior features: Covered porch(es)Covered patioGuttersExterior lightingPrivacy wood fencing in backyard

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalElectric ovenGas cooktopMicrowave
Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on main level)Primary bedroom with attached primary bathroom
Flooring: CarpetCeramic tileWood
Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroomDouble vanity(s) in primary bath
Heating & cooling: Zoned heatingZoned cooling
Interior features: Open floorplanKitchen islandEat-in kitchenPantryWalk-in closetsDecorative lightingDouble vanityCable TV availableHigh speed internet available15 total rooms2 living areas2 dining areasOne-level layout
Laundry & utility: Utility room (main level)

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $749,900 Active 170 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $749,900 Active 169 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $749,900 Active 168 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $749,900 Active 167 DOM
2026-11-04

pricedays on market $749,900 Active 166 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $799,900 Active 164 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $799,900 Active 163 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $799,900 Active 162 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $799,900 Active 161 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $799,900 Active 160 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $799,900 Active 159 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $799,900 Active 158 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $799,900 Active 157 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $799,900 Active 156 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $799,900 Active 155 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $799,900 Active 154 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $799,900 Active 153 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $799,900 Active 152 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $799,900 Active 151 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $799,900 Active 150 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $799,900 Active 149 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $799,900 Active 148 DOM
2026-10-16

price $799,900 Active 147 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $849,900 Active 147 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $849,900 Active 146 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $849,900 Active 145 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $849,900 Active 144 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $849,900 Active 143 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $849,900 Active 142 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $849,900 Active 141 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $849,900 Active 140 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $849,900 Active 139 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $849,900 Active 138 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $849,900 Active 137 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $849,900 Active 136 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $849,900 Active 135 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $849,900 Active 134 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $849,900 Active 133 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $849,900 Active 132 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $849,900 Active 131 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $849,900 Active 130 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $849,900 Active 129 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $849,900 Active 128 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $849,900 Active 127 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $849,900 Active 126 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $849,900 Active 125 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $849,900 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $849,900 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $849,900 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $849,900 Active 121 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $39,928
− Mortgage interest: −$42,006
− Property taxes: −$11,248
− Insurance: −$3,750
− Repairs & maintenance: −$3,194
− Management: −$3,194
− Depreciation: −$21,815
Taxable loss: −$45,280

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,867
After-tax cash flow: $-19,779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $16,285–$48,855 screening

This one-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases through minor cosmetic upgrades and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look of the bathrooms and attract more buyers. ↑
Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers. ↑
Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oak Point El F TX #2,500/4,322 Nat'l #26,438/41,679 Middle Jerry R Walker Middle F TX #736/1,662 Nat'l #6,708/14,009 High Little Elm H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Little Elm ISD
NCES district ID: 4827720
Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $76,400
Composite: 36.17/100
National rank: #4734
State rank: #327 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Lakewood Village

Score: 62/100
State rank: #968
US rank: #17186

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Lakewood Village, TX
County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 72,710
Household income: $126,635
Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -85.41%
Current HPI: 249.755
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.50%
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+3.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

2026-06-29 Price Changed $881,900 NTREIS
2026-06-29 Price Changed $881,900 Zillow
2026-05-22 Listed $851,900 Zillow
2026-05-22 Listed $851,900 NTREIS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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