20734 Hemlock St · Pine Mountain Lake, CA 95370

$269,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,808 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1989 0.26 ac lot $149/sqft · 30% below area Est $384k · 30% under $306/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to your home away from home in the sought-after community of Pine Mountain Lake. This inviting mountain retreat offers the perfect opportunity to bring your vision to life and make it truly your own. Step through the front door and into a light-filled great room, where soaring windows frame the outdoors and parquet flooring adds classic charm. Cozy up by the wood-burning fireplace—ideal for crisp mountain evenings. The main level features the kitchen, two bedrooms, a bathroom, and a convenient laundry room, offering a functional layout with plenty of potential. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious loft and a private primary suite. The primary bathroom includes a sunken tub, dual vanities, a shower stall, and a closeted toilet—ready for your personal updates and design touches. A detached two-car garage provides ample storage for vehicles, tools, or mountain toys. While this home needs some love, the bones and layout offer endless possibilities. Enjoy all the amenities of Pine Mountain Lake and the added bonus of being just a short drive to Yosemite National Park. A true fixer-upper with heart, character, and incredible potential in one of Groveland’s most desirable communities.

Key facts

• Sunken tub
• Dual vanities
• Spacious loft

Tags

• LIGHT FILLED GREAT ROOM
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• SUNKEN TUB
• DUAL VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#896 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,094 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tenaya Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,270 of 1,571 statewide, top 83%, 179 students, 58% FRL); Don Pedro High (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #826 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 50 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.51%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $383,752
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -29.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20439 Pine Mountain Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,628 (-10%)	1mo	$288,000	$177	73
20515 Nob Hill Cir	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-9%)	7mo	$275,000	$167	66
20944 Woodside Way	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,695 (-6%)	6mo	$825,000	$487	66
20735 Rising Hill Cir	0.18mi	3/2.5	2,000 (+11%)	10mo	$377,000	$189	64
12679 Cresthaven	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,876 (+4%)	6mo	$353,000	$188	63
21055 Hemlock St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,852 (+2%)	15mo	$502,500	$271	62
20631 Nob Hill Cir	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-13%)	7mo	$367,500	$233	58
12632 Cresthaven Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,634 (-10%)	6mo	$290,000	$177	55
20810 Crescent Way	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,632 (-10%)	12mo	$340,000	$208	54
20632 Longview	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (-15%)	11mo	$337,500	$219	50
12727 Hetch Hetchy Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,629 (-10%)	7mo	$325,000	$200	44
13340 Yorkshire Rd	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,544 (-15%)	17mo	$280,000	$181	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-53,414
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-58,591
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 301
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,645/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$306
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,699

Max offer price $241,180

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5	-5% $-81	+0% $-157	+5% $-234	+10% $-310
Rent	-10% $-355	-5% $-256	+0% $-157	+5% $-59	+10% $40
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-89	base $-157	+0.5pp $-227	+1.0pp $-298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19570 Cottonwood St Groveland, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $306 · $3,672/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,000 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $269,000 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,000 Active 165 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $269,000 Active 164 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,000 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,000 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,000 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,000 Active 158 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,000 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 153 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 152 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 151 DOM
18. 2025-12-30
    listed $269,000 Active 1229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1229 chars)

    Welcome home to your home away from home in the sought-after community of Pine Mountain Lake. This inviting mountain retreat offers the perfect opportunity to bring your vision to life and make it truly your own. Step through the front door and into a light-filled great room, where soaring windows frame the outdoors and parquet flooring adds classic charm. Cozy up by the wood-burning fireplace—ideal for crisp mountain evenings. The main level features the kitchen, two bedrooms, a bathroom, and a convenient laundry room, offering a functional layout with plenty of potential. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious loft and a private primary suite. The primary bathroom includes a sunken tub, dual vanities, a shower stall, and a closeted toilet—ready for your personal updates and design touches. A detached two-car garage provides ample storage for vehicles, tools, or mountain toys. While this home needs some love, the bones and layout offer endless possibilities. Enjoy all the amenities of Pine Mountain Lake and the added bonus of being just a short drive to Yosemite National Park. A true fixer-upper with heart, character, and incredible potential in one of Groveland’s most desirable communities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,645 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,645 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$3,645
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$3,672
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$6,355
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,525
• After-tax cash flow: $-364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0691137
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,027
• Composite: 27.21/100
• National rank: #12450
• State rank: #1094 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pine Mountain Lake

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #23898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Mountain Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Listed $269,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,645 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.