418 Dearborn St · Buffalo, NY 14207

$165,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,208 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1900 3,168 sqft lot Est $159k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 2 family, lower has 2 large bedrooms, each unit has LR, DR and enclosed porch, large fenced yard, 2 new elec service (2018), HWT (2011 & 2016), glass block windows in basement, transferable warranty on basement walls. Blown in insulation. Rent in lower is low because it is a relative. Great potential, near busline. Easy lockbox showings. There is a user fee of $356.30 per year for trash removal and rental registration of $50 per year.

Key facts

• 3,168 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Two-unit building with separate meters (2 gas, 2 electric); Owner pays water; water included in rent; Operating expenses include water/sewer; Unit 1 rents month-to-month at $950 (3-bed, 1-bath); Unit 2 rents month-to-month at $900 (2-bed, 1-bath)

Exterior

• Parking: No driveway; on-street parking
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: 2-story property; Existing (previously built) structure
• Construction: Composite siding; Blown-in insulation; Copper plumbing; Asphalt roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Porch; Enclosed porch; Rectangular residential lot near public transit on a city street

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: One unit with 3 bedrooms; One unit with 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood and laminate floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms total (one full bathroom in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Enclosed porch and porch; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Separate gas and electric meters for each unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,641/mo this rent would consume 80% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 2177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $165k implies a 242% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.97%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,976
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20 Garfield St	0.21mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,120 (-4%)	6mo	$130,000	$61	74
172 Austin St	0.27mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,300 (+4%)	2mo	$165,001	$72	73
37 Peoria St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,148 (-3%)	6mo	$138,000	$64	72
2112 Niagara St	0.13mi	5/2.0	2,020 (-8%)	14mo	$163,000	$81	68
5 Humphrey Rd	0.43mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,112 (-4%)	5mo	$230,648	$109	64
11 Sandrock Rd	0.46mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,312 (+5%)	11mo	$240,000	$104	57
215 Thompson St	0.18mi	6/2.0 (+1)	1,984 (-10%)	16mo	$115,000	$58	56
81 East St	0.50mi	5/2.0	2,469 (+12%)	5mo	$170,000	$69	53
24 Briggs Ave	0.71mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,192 (-1%)	13mo	$211,000	$96	50
77 Clay St	0.54mi	6/2.0 (+1)	1,964 (-11%)	3mo	$73,500	$37	49
55 Briggs Ave	0.71mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,402 (+9%)	9mo	$115,000	$48	40
69 Hunt Ave	0.65mi	5/2.0	2,484 (+12%)	15mo	$234,999	$95	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $58,202
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.45×
• Total profit: $205,427
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,641 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $443/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $1,115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,229

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 53%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1	$1,236
1× unit	3	1	$1,406
Total (2 units)			$2,641

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Forest Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1304	$2,560	$1.96	1d	14	0.92mi
836 Richmond Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	3.5	1982	$4,500	$2.27	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 171-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $165,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $443 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,616 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,173/yr (+$98/mo · 265.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$443
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,535
• − Management: −$2,535
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $11,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,715
• After-tax cash flow: $10,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+230.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $165,000 WNYREIS
• 2019-02-15 Sold (MLS) $48,250 WNYREIS
• 2019-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records
• 2018-11-29 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-11-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-11-01 Price Changed $52,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-10-15 Price Changed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-08-22 Listed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-11-03 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-08-17 Listed $49,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $443 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.