7482 Shadow Lake Dr · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32407

$299,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 585 Days on market

Built 2021 $200/sqft · 5% below area Est $317k · 5% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully furnished 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhouse—ready to start making money from day one! This is one of the best deals in Panama City Beach right now, with lots of updates and strong rental potential. The Airbnb-friendly community is moments from the beach, making it ideal as a primary home, long-term rental, or vacation rental. Major upgrades include a life-proof PVC deck and privacy fence that add comfort, privacy, low maintenance, and value. The kitchen features new appliances, a modern backsplash, and updated light fixtures, while new vinyl plank flooring is installed downstairs and in the bathroom. Located on the preferred side of the community, the home overlooks a beautiful lighted pond and offers an oversized driveway with room for multiple vehicles. Turnkey and move-in/rental ready, it's minutes from the beach, dining, and entertainment—schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Updated pvc deck
• Peaceful pond views
• Community pool

Tags

• UPDATED PVC DECK
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PEACEFUL POND VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 585 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,357 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 585 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,320
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -5.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7464 Shadow Lake Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,496 (0%)	2mo	$243,000	$162	94
7690 Shadow Lake Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,496 (0%)	11mo	$269,000	$180	77
106 Dana Way	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,483 (-1%)	9mo	$280,000	$189	60
112 Dana Way	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,445 (-3%)	6mo	$320,000	$221	57
7131 Melissa Elaine Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,417 (-5%)	11mo	$335,000	$236	57
208 Greenwood Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,553 (+4%)	8mo	$270,000	$174	52
124 Heritage Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-12%)	10mo	$295,000	$224	51
109 Michelle Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-7%)	8mo	$310,000	$224	50
142 Heritage Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,682 (+12%)	9mo	$338,500	$201	48
1840 Annabellas Dr	0.70mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,404 (-6%)	2mo	$190,000	$135	48
219 Woodlawn Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+6%)	10mo	$360,000	$226	45
198 Laird Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,613 (+8%)	13mo	$485,000	$301	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-68,632
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-102,378
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32407

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,214 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,159/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,482

Max offer price $262,419

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-42	-5% $-127	+0% $-212	+5% $-297	+10% $-382
Rent	-10% $-387	-5% $-300	+0% $-212	+5% $-125	+10% $-37
Rate	-1.0pp $-61	-0.5pp $-136	base $-212	+0.5pp $-290	+1.0pp $-369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7664 Shadow Lake Dr Unit 1523352P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$3,210	$2.09	14d	1	0.23mi
7682 Shadow Lake Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,875	$1.25	22d	1	0.26mi
7110 London St Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1419	$2,157	$1.52	14d	6	0.29mi
2148 Sterling Cove Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,695	$1.47	22d	1	0.46mi
2110 Sterling Cove Blvd Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,800	$1.56	22d	1	0.52mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,355	$2.31	14d	41	0.56mi
1846 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1404	$1,850	$1.32	22d	1	0.74mi
6422 W Highway 98 #1405 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1384	$3,850	$2.78	22d	1	0.79mi
1744 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	14d	1	0.84mi
1734 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	22d	1	0.84mi
6625 Harbour Blvd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1438	$1,695	$1.18	22d	1	0.91mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,184	$2.26	14d	12	0.95mi
6588 Harbour Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,760	$1.47	22d	1	0.96mi
6728 Sunrise Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	966	$1,600	$1.66	14d	1	0.97mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,950	$2.71	14d	18	1.08mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,400	$1.56	14d	2	1.10mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	14d	1	1.19mi
140 Treasure Palm Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	22d	1	1.23mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	14d	1	1.32mi
2216 Anne Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	14d	1	1.37mi
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	14d	1	1.38mi
2301 Anne Ave Unit 8901 Laird Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,625	$1.81	14d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,900 Active 585 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 584 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 583 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 582 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 581 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 579 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 578 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 576 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 575 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,900 Active 574 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 573 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,900 Active 570 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 569 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 568 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 567 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 566 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 565 DOM
18. 2025-12-13
    price $299,900 897-char remark

    Show marketing remark (897 chars)

    Fully furnished 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhouse—ready to start making money from day one! This is one of the best deals in Panama City Beach right now, with lots of updates and strong rental potential. The Airbnb-friendly community is moments from the beach, making it ideal as a primary home, long-term rental, or vacation rental. Major upgrades include a life-proof PVC deck and privacy fence that add comfort, privacy, low maintenance, and value. The kitchen features new appliances, a modern backsplash, and updated light fixtures, while new vinyl plank flooring is installed downstairs and in the bathroom. Located on the preferred side of the community, the home overlooks a beautiful lighted pond and offers an oversized driveway with room for multiple vehicles. Turnkey and move-in/rental ready, it's minutes from the beach, dining, and entertainment—schedule your showing today.

19. 2024-11-11
    listed $335,000 Active 897-char remark

    Show marketing remark (897 chars)

    Fully furnished 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhouse—ready to start making money from day one! This is one of the best deals in Panama City Beach right now, with lots of updates and strong rental potential. The Airbnb-friendly community is moments from the beach, making it ideal as a primary home, long-term rental, or vacation rental. Major upgrades include a life-proof PVC deck and privacy fence that add comfort, privacy, low maintenance, and value. The kitchen features new appliances, a modern backsplash, and updated light fixtures, while new vinyl plank flooring is installed downstairs and in the bathroom. Located on the preferred side of the community, the home overlooks a beautiful lighted pond and offers an oversized driveway with room for multiple vehicles. Turnkey and move-in/rental ready, it's minutes from the beach, dining, and entertainment—schedule your showing today.

20. 2024-11-05
    historical
21. 2024-09-01
    price $349,900
22. 2024-06-23
    price $355,000
23. 2024-04-20
    listed $369,999 Active
24. 2024-02-07
    price $350,000
25. 2024-01-24
    price $370,000
26. 2023-10-09
    price $380,000
27. 2023-09-08
    price $389,900
28. 2023-08-29
    status Active
29. 2023-07-11
    historical Active Under Contract
30. 2023-05-26
    listed $399,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,159 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,159 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$3,159
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,125
• − Management: −$2,125
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$7,869
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,889
• After-tax cash flow: $-658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,404
• Household income: $80,831
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.39%
• Current HPI: 277.8875
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $299,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-11-11 Listed $335,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-11-05 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2024-09-01 Price Changed $349,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-06-23 Price Changed $355,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-04-20 Listed $369,999 CPARMLS
• 2024-02-07 Price Changed $350,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-01-24 Price Changed $370,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-10-09 Price Changed $380,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-09-08 Price Changed $389,900 CPARMLS
• 2023-08-29 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2023-07-11 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2023-05-26 Listed $399,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+50.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,159 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.