60120 Pearce Chapel Rd · Smithville, MS 38870

$129,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,616 sqft · SingleFamily · 128 Days on market

Built 1962 Fair condition 1.00 ac lot $80/sqft · 5% below area Est $136k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home on 1 acre in the country! Needs some TLC but wonderful possibilities with new flooring, paint, refrigerator and stove, updated bathroom, large enclosed garage has so much potential as additional den, primary suite, etc. Location gives all the privacy you hope a home in the country will offer. Beautiful sunsets await you!

Key facts

• Privacy
• New flooring
• 1 acre

Tags

• 1 ACRE
• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• LARGE ENCLOSED GARAGE
• PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($9/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#173 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Monroe County School District (rural): math 55% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #17 of 130 in MS (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,938 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,471
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -5.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-20,841
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-18,019
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38870

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $45	+0% $1	+5% $-44	+10% $-88
Rent	-10% $-89	-5% $-44	+0% $1	+5% $45	+10% $90
Rate	-1.0pp $66	-0.5pp $34	base $1	+0.5pp $-33	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $129,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $129,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-02-03
    listed $129,000 Active 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    Great starter home on 1 acre in the country! Needs some TLC but wonderful possibilities with new flooring, paint, refrigerator and stove, updated bathroom, large enclosed garage has so much potential as additional den, primary suite, etc. Location gives all the privacy you hope a home in the country will offer. Beautiful sunsets await you!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,084
• − Management: −$1,084
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$2,175
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$522
• After-tax cash flow: $531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

This single-family home requires moderate renovations, focusing on exterior siding and interior paint to improve its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Weathered and in need of replacement
• Major interior walls and paint — No visible condition

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace exterior siding — Improves home's appearance and value
• Both update bathrooms — Modernizes the home and adds value
• Both update kitchen — Modernizes the home and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Weathered and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls and paint · No visible condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace exterior siding — Improves home's appearance and value ↑
• Both update bathrooms — Modernizes the home and adds value ↑
• Both update kitchen — Modernizes the home and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802940
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $44,077
• Composite: 41.04/100
• National rank: #3579
• State rank: #17 of 130 in MS

Livability — Smithville

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #173
• US rank: #16338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,471

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,903 people
• By 2030: 32,612 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 29,761 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 26,788 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 20,058 · -40.8%
• By 2100: 14,566 · -57.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.7% · R 67.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.2pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+30.7 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+17.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.13%
• Current HPI: 138.219
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Listed $129,000 NEMSBD