135 S Stenstrum Ave · Dunnell, MN 56127

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,946 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1975 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#849 in MN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Martin County West School District (rural): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #187 of 301 in MN (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (9.0% local appreciation)).
• Martin County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $143,252 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.66%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $77,237
• Equity at exit: $124,048

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $220,717
• Equity at exit: $256,536

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56127

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,433 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,272/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,314

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 29 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,272 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,272 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,272
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,375
• − Management: −$1,375
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,348
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$324
• After-tax cash flow: $1,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin County West School District
• NCES district ID: 2718960
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $48,825
• Composite: 37.66/100
• National rank: #4369
• State rank: #187 of 301 in MN

Livability — Dunnell

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #849
• US rank: #22999

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunnell, MN
• Population (ZIP): 478

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,583 people
• By 2030: 17,814 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 16,312 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 15,021 · -19.2%
• By 2075: 13,025 · -29.9%
• By 2100: 11,311 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · German/W. Germanic 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.5% · R 69.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.2pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.9 2016: R+41.4 2012: R+23.8 2008: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.97%
• Current HPI: 192.8128
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,272 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.