2 Roberts Ave · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$399,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · Other · 4 Days on market

Built 1900 8,799 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this cute 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom Cottage. Beautiful level property with detached garage. Lots of potential!

Key facts

• 8,799 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service connected (PSEG); Cesspool sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction
• Exterior features: Aluminum siding; Fenced yard; Additional parcels included; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Porch; Partial attic; Crawl space basement; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $400k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.7% in Mastic Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John S Hobart Elementary School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,274 of 2,108 statewide, top 61%, 798 students, 58% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $305k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $399,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.33%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $243,668
• Equity at exit: $360,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.23×
• Total profit: $697,427
• Equity at exit: $777,110

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,011 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$500 /mo · $6,000/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$842
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,499

Max offer price $399,999

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
165 Lynbrook Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1520	$4,000	$2.63	1d	1	0.25mi
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	1d	1	0.64mi
6 Fairview Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1302	$4,299	$3.30	2d	1	0.72mi
192 Cypress Dr Mastic Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$3,800	$2.71	43d	1	1.09mi
44 Pine Tree Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$4,200	$2.62	1d	1	1.25mi
149 Washington Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$3,400	$2.95	1d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   status Active
3. 2026-04-09
   listed $399,999 Active
4. 2026-04-07
   historical $399,999
5. 2022-10-31
   soldstatus $305,000
6. 2022-09-19
   soldstatus $305,000 Closed 117-char remark

   Show marketing remark (117 chars)

   Welcome to this cute 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom Cottage. Beautiful level property with detached garage. Lots of potential!

7. 2022-08-10
   status Pending 117-char remark

   Show marketing remark (117 chars)

   Welcome to this cute 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom Cottage. Beautiful level property with detached garage. Lots of potential!

8. 2022-06-10
   status Active 117-char remark

   Show marketing remark (117 chars)

   Welcome to this cute 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom Cottage. Beautiful level property with detached garage. Lots of potential!

9. 2022-02-28
   status Pending 117-char remark

   Show marketing remark (117 chars)

   Welcome to this cute 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom Cottage. Beautiful level property with detached garage. Lots of potential!

10. 2021-12-27
    price $299,000 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    Welcome to this cute 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom Cottage. Beautiful level property with detached garage. Lots of potential!

11. 2021-12-02
    listed $310,000 Active 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    Welcome to this cute 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom Cottage. Beautiful level property with detached garage. Lots of potential!

12. 2003-03-06
    soldstatus $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 41% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$6,000
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,851
• − Management: −$3,851
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$387
• After-tax cash flow: $5,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+128.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $399,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Coming Soon $399,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-19 Sold (MLS) $305,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-10 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-27 Price Changed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-02 Listed $310,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $328 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.