297 N Davis St · Oronogo, MO 64855

$168,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,433 sqft · Other · 64 Days on market

Built 1960 0.40 ac lot $117/sqft · 20% below area Est $209k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This solid and beautiful 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Oronogo offers nearly 1,500 square feet of living space, featuring a formal dining room and an eat-in kitchen. The upstairs includes an extra-large bedroom and a convenient half bath. This lovely home has numerous updates, including insulated windows, PEX plumbing, a modern HVAC system, and a new roof. All electric with gas available. Huge triple lot! It requires no additional work and is move-in ready!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Pex plumbing
• Extra-large bedroom

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• EXTRA-LARGE BEDROOM
• INSULATED WINDOWS
• PEX PLUMBING
• MODERN HVAC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#156 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Webb City R-VII (suburban): math 53% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #21 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 602 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,952 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.65%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,785
• List price: $168,000
• Delta: -19.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $105,534
• Equity at exit: $151,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.37×
• Total profit: $299,550
• Equity at exit: $326,387

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64855

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $714/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,279

Max offer price $168,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $317	-5% $269	+0% $221	+5% $174	+10% $126
Rent	-10% $98	-5% $160	+0% $221	+5% $283	+10% $345
Rate	-1.0pp $306	-0.5pp $264	base $221	+0.5pp $178	+1.0pp $134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
606 Sarah Ct Oronogo, MO	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,700	$1.17	21d	1	0.67mi
745 Short Leaf Ln Oronogo, MO	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,550	$1.09	21d	1	0.68mi
609 Short Leaf Ln Oronogo, MO	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,400	$0.97	21d	1	0.86mi
1100 Pawpaw Oronogo, MO	3.0	2.0	1211	$1,550	$1.28	21d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $168,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $168,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $168,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $168,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $168,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $168,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $168,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $168,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $168,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $168,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $168,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $168,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $168,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $168,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $168,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    listed $168,000 Active 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    This solid and beautiful 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Oronogo offers nearly 1,500 square feet of living space, featuring a formal dining room and an eat-in kitchen. The upstairs includes an extra-large bedroom and a convenient half bath. This lovely home has numerous updates, including insulated windows, PEX plumbing, a modern HVAC system, and a new roof. All electric with gas available. Huge triple lot! It requires no additional work and is move-in ready!

18. 2025-05-16
    status Pending
19. 2025-05-08
    listed $154,900 Active
20. 2025-04-11
    listed $162,500 Active
21. 2021-09-02
    listed $149,000 Active
22. 2020-03-25
    soldstatus
23. 2020-03-25
    soldstatus
24. 2019-11-21
    listed $60,000
25. 2017-02-24
    soldstatus
26. 2004-05-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $714 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,630 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$915/yr (+$76/mo · 128.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$714
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,497
• − Management: −$1,497
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable loss: −$132
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$32
• After-tax cash flow: $2,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webb City R-VII
• NCES district ID: 2931500
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,022
• Composite: 47.68/100
• National rank: #2244
• State rank: #21 of 324 in MO

Livability — Oronogo

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #8706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oronogo, MO
• City population: 16,360
• Population (ZIP): 2,629

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,033 people
• By 2030: 120,091 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 119,297 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 117,705 · -1.9%
• By 2075: 110,402 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 99,719 · -16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · China

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 25.9% · R 72.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.2pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+46.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.47%
• Current HPI: 254.495
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+180.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $168,000 OGAR
• 2025-05-16 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-05-08 Listed $154,900 SOMO
• 2025-04-11 Listed $162,500 SOMO
• 2021-09-02 Listed $149,000 SOMO
• 2020-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-03-25 Sold (MLS) — OGAR
• 2019-11-21 Listed $60,000 OGAR
• 2017-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $714 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.