4183 Waldron Trl · Forney, TX 75126

$342,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,935 sqft · Land · 38 Days on market

Built 2026 6,098 sqft lot $177/sqft · at area comps Est $349k · at est. $61/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely single story home. Gas oven, fireplace, 10' ceilings, ceiling fans in all rooms, garage door opener & full gutters included. Separate tub and shower and dual sinks in primary bathroom.

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Gas oven
• 10 ceilings

Tags

• GAS OVEN
• FIREPLACE
• 10 CEILINGS
• CEILING FANS
• DUAL SINKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $342k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnson El (math 57% / reading 50%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 694 students, 36% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($332k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $295,567 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.39%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,764
• List price: $342,490
• Delta: -1.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-48,040
• Equity at exit: $51,066

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-44,918
• Equity at exit: $29,612

Cash invested: $95,897 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,956 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,796
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,728/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,714

Max offer price $342,490

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $385	-5% $288	+0% $191	+5% $94	+10% $-3
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $74	+0% $191	+5% $308	+10% $425
Rate	-1.0pp $364	-0.5pp $278	base $191	+0.5pp $102	+1.0pp $12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,622
• Closing costs: $10,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4178 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,573	$1.95	46d	1	0.03mi
4170 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$3,573	$1.70	45d	1	0.07mi
4186 Rim Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2060	$2,750	$1.33	45d	1	0.07mi
4198 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,573	$1.95	45d	1	0.07mi
4162 Rim Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,500	$1.30	45d	1	0.11mi
4306 Paxton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,600	$1.42	45d	1	0.19mi
4005 Waterford Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1852	$2,350	$1.27	45d	1	0.38mi
2850 Dusty Rd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2115	$2,450	$1.16	21d	1	0.54mi
1450 Arabella Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,250	$1.38	14d	1	0.59mi
2320 Willard Way Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	2408	$3,950	$1.64	45d	1	0.64mi
2140 Florence Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2032	$2,600	$1.28	45d	1	0.65mi
2302 Doe Branch Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2457	$2,750	$1.12	23d	1	0.69mi
2503 Blue Oasis Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2127	$2,499	$1.17	9d	1	0.73mi
1308 Middlebrooks Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,650	$1.19	46d	1	0.92mi
107 Huckleberry Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2186	$2,900	$1.33	45d	1	1.09mi
3137 Grimaldo Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,195	$1.38	26d	1	1.11mi
3137 Grimaldo Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,995	$1.27	14d	1	1.11mi
3204 Stanley St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2425	$2,400	$0.99	26d	1	1.12mi
3001 Glazner Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,350	$1.56	45d	1	1.13mi
3012 Glazner Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1984	$2,195	$1.11	5d	1	1.17mi
2035 Karsen Ln Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$2,125	$1.34	0d	1	1.19mi
2038 Allyson Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	1.25mi
3324 Perman Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,125	$1.23	14d	1	1.26mi
3328 Perman Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2301	$2,400	$1.04	45d	1	1.27mi
2040 Shawnee Trl Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,000	$1.09	17d	1	1.31mi
2048 Stagecoach Trl Heartland, TX	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,300	$1.01	0d	1	1.39mi
2048 Stagecoach Trl Unit NA Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,295	$1.00	45d	1	1.39mi
2015 Angel Way Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,671	$1.19	23d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $61 · $732/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   Lovely single story home. Gas oven, fireplace, 10' ceilings, ceiling fans in all rooms, garage door opener & full gutters included. Separate tub and shower and dual sinks in primary bathroom.

2. 2026-05-11
   price $342,490 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   Lovely single story home. Gas oven, fireplace, 10' ceilings, ceiling fans in all rooms, garage door opener & full gutters included. Separate tub and shower and dual sinks in primary bathroom.

3. 2026-05-01
   price $340,490 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   Lovely single story home. Gas oven, fireplace, 10' ceilings, ceiling fans in all rooms, garage door opener & full gutters included. Separate tub and shower and dual sinks in primary bathroom.

4. 2026-04-22
   price $349,490 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   Lovely single story home. Gas oven, fireplace, 10' ceilings, ceiling fans in all rooms, garage door opener & full gutters included. Separate tub and shower and dual sinks in primary bathroom.

5. 2026-04-10
   listed $370,490 Active 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   Lovely single story home. Gas oven, fireplace, 10' ceilings, ceiling fans in all rooms, garage door opener & full gutters included. Separate tub and shower and dual sinks in primary bathroom.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,728 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,268 · $522/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,539/yr (+$378/mo · 262.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,468
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,185
• − Property taxes: −$1,728
• − Insurance: −$1,712
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,837
• − Management: −$2,837
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$9,963
• Taxable loss: −$3,528
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$847
• After-tax cash flow: $3,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $342,490 NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $340,490 NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $349,490 NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $370,490 NTREIS

Property tax history

-25.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,728 · -25.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.