605 N Van Buren St · Bay City, MI 48708

$52,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,650 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1900 4,791 sqft lot ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large 3 story home with full basement home needs renovations throughout 5 bedrooms 3 baths upper deck and front porch 2 fireplaces along with hardwood floors and full basement, 2 nd kitchen on 2nd floor was a 2 unit at one time buyer to verify with city if can be used as 2 unit great potential here ideal for a rehab style loan no utilities currently on. parking in back off alley

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas service
• Home design: Residential property; More than 2 stories (multi-level); Built in 1900
• Construction: Aluminum exterior; Basement foundation
• Exterior features: Deck and porch; Frontage on a road

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first level — 15 x 15 with vinyl flooring; Formal dining room on first level — 15 x 12 with wood flooring
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (second level) with carpet — 10 x 12; Bedroom 2 (second level) with carpet — 13 x 12; Bedroom 3 (second level) with wood floors — 9 (wide); Bedroom 4 (third level) with carpet — 11 x 11; Bedroom 5 (third level) with carpet — 14 x 12
• Flooring: Wood floors in living room, dining room, and library/den; Carpet in most bedrooms and one bathroom; Vinyl flooring in kitchen and two bathrooms
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Bathroom on first level with vinyl flooring; Bathroom on second level with vinyl flooring; Bathroom on third level with carpet flooring
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating with forced air; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Hardwood floors throughout main living areas; Two fireplaces, including a living room fireplace; Basement (full, unfinished, block foundation)
• Laundry & utility: Basement provides utility space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $608 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $360 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $50,440 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.14%
• DSCR: 3.23
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,750
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
904 6th St	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,387 (-10%)	3mo	$248,000	$104	71
908 Mckinley St	0.11mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,627 (-1%)	20mo	$40,700	$15	68
1216 4th St	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,489 (-6%)	4mo	$145,000	$58	66
1600 5th St	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,844 (+7%)	1mo	$215,900	$76	61
260 N VanBuren St	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,662 (+0%)	24mo	$199,900	$75	60
909 6th St	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,337 (-12%)	14mo	$225,000	$96	58
400 N Sherman St	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,810 (+6%)	21mo	$81,891	$29	56
1826 McKinley Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,504 (-6%)	9mo	$200,000	$80	50
908 N Sherman St	0.29mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,980 (+12%)	13mo	$200,000	$67	48
605 Ames Ct	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,416 (-9%)	10mo	$250,000	$103	44
2012 6th St	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,300 (-13%)	23mo	$160,500	$70	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $30,407
• Equity at exit: $7,753

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $76,718
• Equity at exit: $4,496

Cash invested: $14,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,045/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $608

Break-even live

Break-even rent $588

Max offer price $52,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,000
• Closing costs: $1,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-06
   listed $52,000 Active
3. 2012-03-06
   soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,045 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,045 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,913
• − Property taxes: −$2,045
• − Insurance: −$260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$1,513
• Taxable income: $6,962
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,671
• After-tax cash flow: $5,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $52,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,045 · -19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.