4119 W Justice · Vilonia, AR 72023

$109,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1978 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home situated on approximately 1 acre offering space and privacy. The interior features fresh paint and updated flooring, giving the home a clean and refreshed feel. The property also includes a large 60x40 wood-framed shop, providing plenty of room for storage, equipment, hobbies, or a workshop. With a great combination of indoor living space and functional outdoor features, this property offers a variety of possibilities for its next owner.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• Updated flooring
• Space and privacy

Tags

• LARGE WOOD FRAMED SHOP
• UPDATED FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• SPACE AND PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $511 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.6% in Vilonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#108 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jacksonville North Pulaski School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #211 of 238 in AR (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,006 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pulaski County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $110k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,009 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.91%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $14,953
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $55,881
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72023

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,471 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $348/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $511

Break-even live

Break-even rent $824

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,900 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,900 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    status Back on Market 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home situated on approximately 1 acre offering space and privacy. The interior features fresh paint and updated flooring, giving the home a clean and refreshed feel. The property also includes a large 60x40 wood-framed shop, providing plenty of room for storage, equipment, hobbies, or a workshop. With a great combination of indoor living space and functional outdoor features, this property offers a variety of possibilities for its next owner.

18. 2026-04-15
    historical Take Backups 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home situated on approximately 1 acre offering space and privacy. The interior features fresh paint and updated flooring, giving the home a clean and refreshed feel. The property also includes a large 60x40 wood-framed shop, providing plenty of room for storage, equipment, hobbies, or a workshop. With a great combination of indoor living space and functional outdoor features, this property offers a variety of possibilities for its next owner.

19. 2026-03-28
    price $109,900 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home situated on approximately 1 acre offering space and privacy. The interior features fresh paint and updated flooring, giving the home a clean and refreshed feel. The property also includes a large 60x40 wood-framed shop, providing plenty of room for storage, equipment, hobbies, or a workshop. With a great combination of indoor living space and functional outdoor features, this property offers a variety of possibilities for its next owner.

20. 2026-03-10
    listed $124,999 New Listing 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home situated on approximately 1 acre offering space and privacy. The interior features fresh paint and updated flooring, giving the home a clean and refreshed feel. The property also includes a large 60x40 wood-framed shop, providing plenty of room for storage, equipment, hobbies, or a workshop. With a great combination of indoor living space and functional outdoor features, this property offers a variety of possibilities for its next owner.

21. 2023-08-21
    soldstatus $55,000
22. 2023-07-26
    historical
23. 2023-06-29
    price $67,900
24. 2023-05-26
    price $69,999
25. 2023-05-11
    price $74,900
26. 2023-05-01
    price $79,900
27. 2023-04-16
    listed $85,900 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $348 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $703 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$355/yr (+$30/mo · 102.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$348
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,412
• − Management: −$1,412
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $4,573
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,098
• After-tax cash flow: $5,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksonville North Pulaski School District
• NCES district ID: 0500419
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,869
• Composite: 17.16/100
• National rank: #9110
• State rank: #211 of 238 in AR

Livability — Vilonia

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #10836

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 37,452
• Household income: $76,931
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,378 people
• By 2030: 423,720 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 435,182 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 440,904 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 445,521 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 419,173 · +0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.1) · D 59.8% · R 37.7% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: 11.6pp · 2024: 22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.1 2020: D+22.5 2016: D+17.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.12%
• Current HPI: 182.3489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.19%
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+27.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $109,900 CARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $124,999 CARMLS
• 2023-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-26 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2023-06-29 Price Changed $67,900 CARMLS
• 2023-05-26 Price Changed $69,999 CARMLS
• 2023-05-11 Price Changed $74,900 CARMLS
• 2023-05-01 Price Changed $79,900 CARMLS
• 2023-04-16 Listed $85,900 CARMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $348 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.