1286 Winter Green Way · Winter Garden, FL 34787

$229,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Townhouse public records · 213 Days on market

Built 1985 2,260 sqft lot Est $229k · at est. $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Motivated sellers!!! Sellers are offering $10,000 in concessions for the renovation of a new kitchen!! Discover this charming 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhouse located just 2 miles—about 5 minutes—from downtown Winter Garden. Perfectly positioned for convenience and entertainment, this home offers a lifestyle you’ll love. Enjoy being a short walk to Publix, close to abundant shopping and dining, and only 30 minutes from Disney and other world-class theme parks. Commuters will appreciate quick access to the Turnpike and 429, both just 2 miles away. Inside, the home is in excellent condition and features renovated bathrooms along with high ceilings that create a bright, spacious

Key facts

• Renovated bathrooms
• Vibrant community
• Short walk to publix

Tags

• RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• HIGH CEILINGS
• SHORT WALK TO PUBLIX
• QUICK ACCESS TO TURNPIKE
• VIBRANT COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No CDD; Zoning: R-3
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $63; HOA covers pool and grounds maintenance; Village Grove of Winter Garden homeowners association; Community amenities: pool, playground, sidewalks, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt road access
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Electricity connected; Cable available; Fiber optics available; Public utilities available
• Home design: Townhouse; Residential property; Two levels; Southeast facing
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built with durable masonry materials
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (one or more on main/entry level not specified)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Tile flooring in primary living areas
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-273/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.9% in Winter Garden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#41 in FL, #804 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunridge Elementary (math 54% / reading 56%, grade C, #872 of 2,144 statewide, top 42%, 687 students, 48% FRL); Lakeview Middle (math 49% / reading 49%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 843 students, 48% FRL); West Orange High (math 30% / reading 60%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 2,816 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1605 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $230k implies a 361% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,800
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1229 Winter Green Way	0.07mi	2/1.5	1,144 (0%)	16mo	$249,900	$218	81
1326 Winter Green Way	0.04mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (+5%)	7mo	$235,000	$196	77
1421 Fettler Way	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,076 (-6%)	2mo	$170,000	$158	68
1426 Fettler Way	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,076 (-6%)	22mo	$215,000	$200	49
1303 Azalea Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	984 (-14%)	9mo	$226,000	$230	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-42,403
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-53,407
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34787

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1605
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,033 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,177/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,062

Max offer price $225,883

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $42	+0% $-23	+5% $-88	+10% $-153
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-103	+0% $-23	+5% $58	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $36	base $-23	+0.5pp $-82	+1.0pp $-143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1350 Winter Green Way Winter Garden, FL	2.0	1.5	1190	$2,200	$1.85	25d	1	0.07mi
1205 S Park Ave Winter Garden, FL	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,850	$1.65	3d	1	0.25mi
1309 Cardinal Ln Winter Garden, FL	3.0	2.0	984	$1,800	$1.83	9d	1	0.30mi
304 Southern Pecan Cir #208 Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,000	$1.58	9d	1	0.35mi
1000 Dolphin Dr Winter Garden, FL	3.0	2.0	984	$2,100	$2.13	25d	1	0.36mi
1240 Winter Garden Vineland Rd Winter Garden, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,853	$2.12	4d	23	0.38mi
1321 Eagle Ln Winter Garden, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	0d	1	0.40mi
1009 Westside Dr Winter Garden, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,050	$1.74	25d	1	0.42mi
143 Southern Pecan Cir #201 Winter Garden, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$2,400	$1.65	19d	1	0.42mi
143 Southern Pecan Cir Winter Garden, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1364	$1,875	$1.37	13d	2	0.42mi
330 Southern Pecan Cir Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	1276	$1,900	$1.49	5d	1	0.43mi
1066 Dolphin Dr Winter Garden, FL	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,700	$1.18	9d	1	0.46mi
1300 Eastern Pecan Pl Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,872	$1.63	25d	2	0.47mi
1300 Eastern Pecan Pl #107 Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,995	$1.73	6d	1	0.47mi
417 Southern Pecan Cir Winter Garden, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1264	$1,995	$1.58	25d	2	0.49mi
314 Douglas Way Unit 900 Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	930	$1,570	$1.69	25d	1	0.49mi
417 Southern Pecan Cir #205 Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	1264	$1,995	$1.58	16d	1	0.50mi
417 Southern Pecan Cir #207 Winter Garden, FL	1.0	1.0	942	$1,750	$1.86	0d	1	0.50mi
430 Southern Pecan Cir #101 Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,995	$1.73	25d	1	0.56mi
13349 Harbor Shore Ln Unit 1 Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.5	1236	$1,999	$1.62	9d	1	0.68mi
13349 Harbor Shore Ln Unit 1 Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.5	1236	$1,999	$1.62	0d	1	0.68mi
216 Deepcove Rd Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.5	1236	$2,100	$1.70	25d	1	0.74mi
224 W Cypress St Winter Garden, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	19d	1	0.74mi
13293 Daniels Landing Cir Winter Garden, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$2,400	$1.78	25d	1	0.82mi
302 Avalon Rd Unit 302 Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	1203	$1,750	$1.45	0d	1	0.88mi
302 Avalon Rd Unit 302 Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	1203	$1,750	$1.45	9d	1	0.88mi
36 Windtree Ln Unit 202 Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,520	$1.66	0d	1	0.90mi
326 Daniels Pointe Dr Winter Garden, FL	3.0	2.0	1139	$2,150	$1.89	22d	1	0.95mi
88 Windtree Ln Unit K Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,450	$1.58	4d	1	0.96mi
80 Windtree Ln Unit 203 Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,650	$1.80	25d	1	0.97mi
126 Windtree Ln Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	23d	1	0.99mi
126 Windtree Ln Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	19d	1	0.99mi
119 Windtree Ln Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	958	$1,695	$1.77	25d	1	1.01mi
165 Windtree Ln Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	25d	1	1.01mi
508 Varsity St Winter Garden, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,695	$2.17	25d	1	1.01mi
165 Windtree Ln Unit U Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,750	$1.91	25d	1	1.04mi
314 S Boyd St Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$2,050	$1.94	4d	1	1.15mi
584 W Bay St Winter Garden, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	740	$2,225	$3.00	3d	8	1.27mi
11 E Smith St Winter Garden, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	948	$2,900	$3.06	9d	3	1.32mi
109 S Boyd St Unit 205 Winter Garden, FL	1.0	1.0	830	$1,895	$2.28	5d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,900 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,900 Active 196 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 193 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 192 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $229,900
17. 2026-03-03
    price $239,900
18. 2026-01-30
    price $249,900
19. 2025-12-12
    status Active
20. 2025-12-07
    status Pending
21. 2025-11-15
    listed $255,000 Active
22. 1997-05-27
    soldstatus $49,900
23. 1996-07-30
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,177 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,177 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$3,177
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,952
• − Management: −$1,952
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$4,151
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$996
• After-tax cash flow: $723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Garden

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #804

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Garden, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 101,441
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 101,441
• Household income: $120,365
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2682.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 21% Black 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 4% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -189.49%
• Current HPI: 296.8866
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+410.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-15 Listed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 1996-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,177 · +174.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.