18039 Robinwood Dr · Lyman, MS 39574

$255,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,101 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1992 1.02 ac lot $122/sqft · 15% below area Est $298k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Home on 1 Acre in Robinwood Forest! This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home features a welcoming living area with a corner fireplace and a desirable split bedroom floor plan. The spacious eat-in kitchen offers plenty of room for everyday meals, while the formal dining room is perfect for gatherings. Flooring includes wood and split brick for added character and durability. The primary suite includes a soaking tub, separate shower, and great closet space. Enjoy the large covered back patio overlooking the backyard and pool area. Property sits on a 1-acre lot and includes two storage buildings plus a 2-car garage, offering ample space for tools, hobbies, and parking. Located in the highly desirable Robinwood Forest Subdivision, schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Formal dining room
• 1 acre

Tags

• 1 ACRE
• CORNER FIREPLACE
• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• WOOD FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $509 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $256k).
• Recommended offer: $225k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.4% in Lyman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#47 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $217k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,192 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.52%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,800
• List price: $255,900
• Delta: -14.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18039 Robinwood Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,089 (-1%)	0mo	$255,900	$122	93
17422 Willow Cv	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,993 (-5%)	4mo	$298,900	$150	70
18268 Robinwood Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	2,008 (-4%)	13mo	$320,000	$159	63
17401 Willow Cv	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,820 (-13%)	2mo	$293,900	$161	58
18581 W Wortham Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	2,398 (+14%)	3mo	$386,000	$161	58
19180 High Pl	0.66mi	3/2.0	2,100 (-0%)	10mo	$297,500	$142	57
18409 Old Highway 49	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,947 (-7%)	20mo	$314,900	$162	56
18411 Spring Hill Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,888 (-10%)	18mo	$298,400	$158	54
17409 Willow Cv	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,884 (-10%)	10mo	$295,900	$157	53
17994 Lake Breeze Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	2,382 (+13%)	7mo	$280,500	$118	51
18381 Old Highway 49	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,349 (+12%)	11mo	$314,900	$134	48
18170 Sherwood Ct	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,010 (-4%)	18mo	$289,900	$144	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-9,084
• Equity at exit: $38,156

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $33,724
• Equity at exit: $22,126

Cash invested: $71,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39574

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,581/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $509

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,106

Max offer price $255,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $654	-5% $581	+0% $509	+5% $436	+10% $364
Rent	-10% $292	-5% $400	+0% $509	+5% $617	+10% $726
Rate	-1.0pp $638	-0.5pp $574	base $509	+0.5pp $442	+1.0pp $375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,975
• Closing costs: $7,677
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18523 Pecan Ln Saucier, MS	3.0	2.0	2584	$2,750	$1.06	15d	1	0.33mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 767-char remark

   Show marketing remark (767 chars)

   Beautiful Home on 1 Acre in Robinwood Forest! This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home features a welcoming living area with a corner fireplace and a desirable split bedroom floor plan. The spacious eat-in kitchen offers plenty of room for everyday meals, while the formal dining room is perfect for gatherings. Flooring includes wood and split brick for added character and durability. The primary suite includes a soaking tub, separate shower, and great closet space. Enjoy the large covered back patio overlooking the backyard and pool area. Property sits on a 1-acre lot and includes two storage buildings plus a 2-car garage, offering ample space for tools, hobbies, and parking. Located in the highly desirable Robinwood Forest Subdivision, schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-04-16
   price $255,900 767-char remark

   Show marketing remark (767 chars)

   Beautiful Home on 1 Acre in Robinwood Forest! This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home features a welcoming living area with a corner fireplace and a desirable split bedroom floor plan. The spacious eat-in kitchen offers plenty of room for everyday meals, while the formal dining room is perfect for gatherings. Flooring includes wood and split brick for added character and durability. The primary suite includes a soaking tub, separate shower, and great closet space. Enjoy the large covered back patio overlooking the backyard and pool area. Property sits on a 1-acre lot and includes two storage buildings plus a 2-car garage, offering ample space for tools, hobbies, and parking. Located in the highly desirable Robinwood Forest Subdivision, schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-03-15
   price $269,000 767-char remark

   Show marketing remark (767 chars)

   Beautiful Home on 1 Acre in Robinwood Forest! This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home features a welcoming living area with a corner fireplace and a desirable split bedroom floor plan. The spacious eat-in kitchen offers plenty of room for everyday meals, while the formal dining room is perfect for gatherings. Flooring includes wood and split brick for added character and durability. The primary suite includes a soaking tub, separate shower, and great closet space. Enjoy the large covered back patio overlooking the backyard and pool area. Property sits on a 1-acre lot and includes two storage buildings plus a 2-car garage, offering ample space for tools, hobbies, and parking. Located in the highly desirable Robinwood Forest Subdivision, schedule your showing today!

4. 2026-02-12
   price $279,000 767-char remark

   Show marketing remark (767 chars)

   Beautiful Home on 1 Acre in Robinwood Forest! This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home features a welcoming living area with a corner fireplace and a desirable split bedroom floor plan. The spacious eat-in kitchen offers plenty of room for everyday meals, while the formal dining room is perfect for gatherings. Flooring includes wood and split brick for added character and durability. The primary suite includes a soaking tub, separate shower, and great closet space. Enjoy the large covered back patio overlooking the backyard and pool area. Property sits on a 1-acre lot and includes two storage buildings plus a 2-car garage, offering ample space for tools, hobbies, and parking. Located in the highly desirable Robinwood Forest Subdivision, schedule your showing today!

5. 2026-01-15
   price $289,000 767-char remark

   Show marketing remark (767 chars)

   Beautiful Home on 1 Acre in Robinwood Forest! This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home features a welcoming living area with a corner fireplace and a desirable split bedroom floor plan. The spacious eat-in kitchen offers plenty of room for everyday meals, while the formal dining room is perfect for gatherings. Flooring includes wood and split brick for added character and durability. The primary suite includes a soaking tub, separate shower, and great closet space. Enjoy the large covered back patio overlooking the backyard and pool area. Property sits on a 1-acre lot and includes two storage buildings plus a 2-car garage, offering ample space for tools, hobbies, and parking. Located in the highly desirable Robinwood Forest Subdivision, schedule your showing today!

6. 2025-12-10
   listed $299,000 Active 767-char remark

   Show marketing remark (767 chars)

   Beautiful Home on 1 Acre in Robinwood Forest! This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home features a welcoming living area with a corner fireplace and a desirable split bedroom floor plan. The spacious eat-in kitchen offers plenty of room for everyday meals, while the formal dining room is perfect for gatherings. Flooring includes wood and split brick for added character and durability. The primary suite includes a soaking tub, separate shower, and great closet space. Enjoy the large covered back patio overlooking the backyard and pool area. Property sits on a 1-acre lot and includes two storage buildings plus a 2-car garage, offering ample space for tools, hobbies, and parking. Located in the highly desirable Robinwood Forest Subdivision, schedule your showing today!

7. 2018-08-15
   soldstatus $217,000
8. 2018-08-14
   soldstatus 324-char remark

   Show marketing remark (324 chars)

   Come check out this amazing home located on 1.02 acres with a HUGE salt water pool. Lots of entertainment space outside to enjoy, 2 storage sheds, newly paved driveway and poured sidewalk. This home does have a small water entrance to the lake. Take your kayak or canoe and go catch a few fish. Call today for this lisiting!

9. 2018-04-23
   listed $220,000 324-char remark

   Show marketing remark (324 chars)

   Come check out this amazing home located on 1.02 acres with a HUGE salt water pool. Lots of entertainment space outside to enjoy, 2 storage sheds, newly paved driveway and poured sidewalk. This home does have a small water entrance to the lake. Take your kayak or canoe and go catch a few fish. Call today for this lisiting!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,581 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,581 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,334
• − Property taxes: −$2,581
• − Insurance: −$1,280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,640
• − Management: −$2,640
• − Depreciation: −$7,444
• Taxable income: $2,080
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$499
• After-tax cash flow: $5,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lyman

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #8189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,830

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.24%
• Current HPI: 206.218
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+16.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $255,900 MLSU
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $269,000 MLSU
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $279,000 MLSU
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $289,000 MLSU
• 2025-12-10 Listed $299,000 MLSU
• 2018-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $217,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-14 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2018-04-23 Listed $220,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,581 · +90.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.