956 Butternut Hill Rd Unit E4 · Waitsfield, VT 05673

$189,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Condo · 284 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition $315/sqft · at area comps Est $191k · at est. $883/mo HOA · 43% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A short distance from downtown Waitsfield and nestled in the woods you will find this charming updated one bedroom, one bath condo located at the Butternut Hill condos. Perfect for year-round recreation or a relaxed mountain getaway, this unit has an open concept feel with many upgrades including appliances. Generous storage with two dedicated storage units that provide room for all your summer toys and winter gear. Some of the many features of this property include mountain bike trails, a beautiful in-ground pool, tennis courts and a shared BBQ area. Fantastic location near rivers and scenic hiking trails, and just a short drive to top ski resorts. Enjoy lifestyle-focused living in the quintessential Mad River Valley that is always ready for your mountain adventures.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• New shower
• New kitchen cabinets

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• NEW SHOWER
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• CORETEC WATERPROOF FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $189k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-561 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $108k (42.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (42.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#37 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.

Recommended offer $107,870 (42.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 2.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.71%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,159
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -1.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $67,799
• Equity at exit: $170,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.32×
• Total profit: $228,879
• Equity at exit: $367,185

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05673

• Home prices YoY: 14.8%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,061 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$883
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,771

Max offer price $107,870

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-430	-5% $-495	+0% $-561	+5% $-626	+10% $-691
Rent	-10% $-724	-5% $-642	+0% $-561	+5% $-479	+10% $-398
Rate	-1.0pp $-465	-0.5pp $-513	base $-561	+0.5pp $-610	+1.0pp $-659

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $883 · $10,596/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 284 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,000 Active 282 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 281 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 280 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 279 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 278 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,000 Active 275 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 272 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 271 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 270 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 269 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,000 Active 266 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 265 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 264 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 263 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 262 DOM
18. 2026-04-07
    price $189,000 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    A short distance from downtown Waitsfield and nestled in the woods you will find this charming updated one bedroom, one bath condo located at the Butternut Hill condos. Perfect for year-round recreation or a relaxed mountain getaway, this unit has an open concept feel with many upgrades including appliances. Generous storage with two dedicated storage units that provide room for all your summer toys and winter gear. Some of the many features of this property include mountain bike trails, a beautiful in-ground pool, tennis courts and a shared BBQ area. Fantastic location near rivers and scenic hiking trails, and just a short drive to top ski resorts. Enjoy lifestyle-focused living in the quintessential Mad River Valley that is always ready for your mountain adventures.

19. 2026-01-22
    price $199,500 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    A short distance from downtown Waitsfield and nestled in the woods you will find this charming updated one bedroom, one bath condo located at the Butternut Hill condos. Perfect for year-round recreation or a relaxed mountain getaway, this unit has an open concept feel with many upgrades including appliances. Generous storage with two dedicated storage units that provide room for all your summer toys and winter gear. Some of the many features of this property include mountain bike trails, a beautiful in-ground pool, tennis courts and a shared BBQ area. Fantastic location near rivers and scenic hiking trails, and just a short drive to top ski resorts. Enjoy lifestyle-focused living in the quintessential Mad River Valley that is always ready for your mountain adventures.

20. 2025-09-10
    listed $220,000 Active 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    A short distance from downtown Waitsfield and nestled in the woods you will find this charming updated one bedroom, one bath condo located at the Butternut Hill condos. Perfect for year-round recreation or a relaxed mountain getaway, this unit has an open concept feel with many upgrades including appliances. Generous storage with two dedicated storage units that provide room for all your summer toys and winter gear. Some of the many features of this property include mountain bike trails, a beautiful in-ground pool, tennis courts and a shared BBQ area. Fantastic location near rivers and scenic hiking trails, and just a short drive to top ski resorts. Enjoy lifestyle-focused living in the quintessential Mad River Valley that is always ready for your mountain adventures.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,979
• − Management: −$1,979
• − HOA: −$10,596
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$9,683
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,324
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This updated one-bedroom condo is in good condition with recent renovations, making it a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Waitsfield

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #9382

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,465

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,608 people
• By 2030: 54,731 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 50,227 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 45,893 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 36,818 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 28,143 · -50.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Danish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.4) · D 70.0% · R 26.6% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 41.0pp · 2024: 43.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.4 2020: D+46.1 2016: D+37.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.14%
• Current HPI: 380.3453
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-14.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $189,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $199,500 PrimeMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listed $220,000 PrimeMLS