12809 Lease Bittern Way · Buda, TX 78610

$290,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $189/sqft · 46% below area Est $535k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

From the covered porch, you step into the foyer, where you're greeted by a coat closet and welcomed into the open dining area, kitchen, and family room. Just off the kitchen is the laundry room, which also provides access to the two-car garage. The family room leads to a back patio for outdoor living, as well as the private primary bedroom featuring a walk-in closet and a spacious primary bath. Also located off the kitchen are two additional bedrooms that share a full bath and have access to a nearby linen closet.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Open dining area
• Laundry room

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• OPEN DINING AREA
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• BACK PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE PRIMARY BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $291k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-259 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.4% in Buda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#339 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carpenter Hill El (math 60% / reading 62%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 616 students, 18% FRL); Eric Dahlstrom Middle (math 56% / reading 53%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 902 students, 15% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 43% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hays CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1513 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $221,811 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $534,745
• List price: $290,990
• Delta: -45.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12635 Live Oak Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,613 (+5%)	14mo	$430,000	$267	51
12629 Red Bud Trl	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,401 (-9%)	4mo	$375,000	$268	47
12612 Taylor Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,652 (+8%)	20mo	$463,900	$281	42
205 Leisurewoods Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,657 (+8%)	16mo	$550,000	$332	42
12614 Crystal Creek Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-14%)	13mo	$350,000	$264	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-70,094
• Equity at exit: $43,388

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-107,235
• Equity at exit: $25,159

Cash invested: $81,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.5 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $425,000 ($245/sqft)
• Median days on market: 37 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +42.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78610

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1513
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,218 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$364 /mo · $4,365/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,546

Max offer price $253,562

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-58	-5% $-158	+0% $-259	+5% $-359	+10% $-460
Rent	-10% $-434	-5% $-346	+0% $-259	+5% $-171	+10% $-83
Rate	-1.0pp $-112	-0.5pp $-185	base $-259	+0.5pp $-334	+1.0pp $-411

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,748
• Closing costs: $8,730
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 Millington Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$2,400	$1.34	42d	1	0.72mi
185 Camden Cv Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,200	$1.19	42d	1	0.78mi
108 Brockston Dr Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1851	$2,095	$1.13	10d	1	0.84mi
1098 Giberson Way Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,175	$1.32	67d	1	0.86mi
1098 Giberson Way Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,100	$1.27	6d	1	0.86mi
188 Brockston Dr Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,195	$1.18	42d	1	0.87mi
1178 Clark Brothers Dr Buda, TX	3.0	3.0	1650	$2,100	$1.27	119d	1	0.92mi
607 Prickley Pear Pass Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	2132	$2,800	$1.31	99d	1	0.93mi
149 Crizer Ct Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,000	$1.21	2d	1	0.94mi
153 Carrington Dr Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,200	$1.44	60d	1	0.96mi
133 Calline Mayes Run Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$2,150	$1.38	24d	1	1.02mi
2375 Garlic Creek Dr Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1880	$2,200	$1.17	110d	1	1.14mi
799 Clear Springs Holw Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1870	$2,250	$1.20	83d	1	1.22mi
299 Clear Springs Holw Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	2101	$2,350	$1.12	24d	1	1.33mi
481 Bayou Bend Dr Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$2,340	$1.35	139d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,990 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   remarks 519-char remark
3. 2026-06-07
   listed $290,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,300
• − Property taxes: −$4,365
• − Insurance: −$1,455
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,129
• − Management: −$2,129
• − Depreciation: −$8,465
• Taxable loss: −$8,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,974
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a fresh paint job and well-maintained landscaping. It offers a good starting point for potential buyers or renters, with minor updates that could significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental appeal. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Energy-efficient systems can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 55/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Carpenter Hill El B TX #368/4,322 Nat'l #6,943/41,679 Middle Eric Dahlstrom Middle B- TX #256/1,662 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High Moe And Gene Johnson H S D TX #509/1,632 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Buda

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #339
• US rank: #7407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 48,319
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,319
• Household income: $119,698
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
• Current HPI: 220.6824
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B