128 Maerose Ave · Mercedes, TX 78570

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1984 0.31 ac lot $78/sqft · 34% below area Est $167k · 34% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity in the heart of downtown Mercedes! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom property sits on a spacious 0.31-acre lot, offering endless potential for investors or buyers looking to add value. The large lot provides ample space for expansion, redevelopment, or future improvements. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this property combines location, size, and opportunity. Whether you’re looking to renovate, rent, or hold, this is a solid investment in a growing area.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Conveniently located
• 0.31 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• AMPLE SPACE FOR EXPANSION
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.4% in Mercedes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#547 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Mercedes ISD (suburban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #811 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 392 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.15%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,659
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -34.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1703 Karianna Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-0%)	3mo	$239,000	$169	85
1501 Abigail St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,362 (-4%)	2mo	$228,000	$167	63
445 S Melton Park Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+11%)	15mo	$183,900	$117	43
114 N Georgia Ave N	0.74mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,318 (-7%)	23mo	$163,000	$124	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $32,474
• Equity at exit: $59,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $91,035
• Equity at exit: $99,645

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78570

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,186 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $986

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $220	-5% $189	+0% $158	+5% $127	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $64	-5% $111	+0% $158	+5% $205	+10% $251
Rate	-1.0pp $213	-0.5pp $186	base $158	+0.5pp $129	+1.0pp $100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
907 E Starr Rd Unit D Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,050	$0.97	44d	1	0.35mi
906 E Starr Rd Unit B Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	44d	1	0.35mi
1003 E Starr Rd Unit C Mercedes, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$995	$1.05	44d	1	0.39mi
203 E Royal Palm Dr Unit C Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1022	$1,275	$1.25	44d	1	0.41mi
203 E Royal Palm Dr Unit D Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1022	$1,325	$1.30	44d	1	0.41mi
203 E Royal Palm Dr Unit A Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	44d	1	0.41mi
1011 E Starr Rd Unit D Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,095	$1.02	44d	1	0.42mi
1809 Unity Dr Unity DR Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1142	$1,650	$1.44	44d	1	1.05mi
941 S Indiana Ave Unit A Mercedes, TX	2.0	2.0	1834	$925	$0.50	44d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 156 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 144 DOM
17. 2026-03-05
    price $110,000 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Great investment opportunity in the heart of downtown Mercedes! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom property sits on a spacious 0.31-acre lot, offering endless potential for investors or buyers looking to add value. The large lot provides ample space for expansion, redevelopment, or future improvements. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this property combines location, size, and opportunity. Whether you’re looking to renovate, rent, or hold, this is a solid investment in a growing area.

18. 2026-01-07
    listed $115,000 Active 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Great investment opportunity in the heart of downtown Mercedes! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom property sits on a spacious 0.31-acre lot, offering endless potential for investors or buyers looking to add value. The large lot provides ample space for expansion, redevelopment, or future improvements. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this property combines location, size, and opportunity. Whether you’re looking to renovate, rent, or hold, this is a solid investment in a growing area.

19. 2025-11-24
    soldstatus
20. 2003-12-22
    soldstatus
21. 1991-08-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,874 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$139/yr (+$12/mo · 7.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,138
• − Management: −$1,138
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $165
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$40
• After-tax cash flow: $1,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mercedes ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830250
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,606
• Composite: 12.84/100
• National rank: #9596
• State rank: #811 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mercedes

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #547
• US rank: #10619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mercedes, TX
• City population: 33,596
• Population (ZIP): 33,596

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 44% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Current HPI: 238.8386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $110,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $115,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,874 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.