867 Sunshower Dr · Lady Lake, FL 33844

$305,260

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,168 sqft · SingleFamily · 217 Days on market

Built 2025 5,500 sqft lot Est $351k · 13% under $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Sep 2025! First-floor primary suite ensures everyone has their own private space. Second floor offers a spacious loft that can be used to best fit your family's needs. Enjoy preparing meals with your family in the open kitchen with spacious work island. Coming soon from the high $200s, The Reserve at Hammock Oaks Classic Series new single-family homes in Lady Lake, FL. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

Key facts

• Work island
• Spacious loft
• Open kitchen

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• FIRST FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• OPEN KITCHEN
• WORK ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; CDD present; Builder license CGC1516367
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,208; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Hammock Reserve Homeowners Association, Inc.); Monthly HOA approximately $48.92; Annual association fee $587; Association amenities: park, playground, trail(s), pool; Association fee includes pool and grounds maintenance; Association recreation owned, sidewalks, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20x20) with garage door opener; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Phone available; BB/HS internet available; Underground utilities; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Northwest facing; Completed / new construction
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Meritage Homes (Yellowstone model)
• Exterior features: Lighting; Sidewalk; Vinyl fencing; Fl. friendly / native landscaping; Public maintained asphalt/paved road; Irrigation equipment (reclaimed water available); Sprinkler recycled

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Loft (additional room)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Solid surface and stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; ENERGY STAR qualified windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer included; Electric water heater; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in Lady Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#457 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: The Villages Elementary of Lady Lake School (math 63% / reading 61%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 761 students, 61% FRL); Carver Middle School (math 41% / reading 41%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 837 students, 65% FRL); Leesburg High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,641 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,575/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 1107% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,511 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.73%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $351,216
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
998 Swamp Chestnut Loop	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,110 (-3%)	2mo	$322,990	$153	87
858 Sunshower Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,281 (+5%)	4mo	$299,990	$132	80
708 Sunshower Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,110 (-3%)	9mo	$416,143	$197	76
862 Sunshower Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,417 (+12%)	0mo	$312,990	$129	75
744 Sunshower Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	1,938 (-11%)	1mo	$312,990	$162	70
716 Sunshower Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,417 (+12%)	9mo	$399,000	$165	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-61,928
• Equity at exit: $45,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-82,270
• Equity at exit: $26,393

Cash invested: $85,473 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,601
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,579/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,731

Max offer price $287,426

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $88	-5% $-18	+0% $-123	+5% $-229	+10% $-334
Rent	-10% $-327	-5% $-225	+0% $-123	+5% $-22	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $30	-0.5pp $-46	base $-123	+0.5pp $-202	+1.0pp $-283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,315
• Closing costs: $9,158
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1220 Turtle Island Rd Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	25d	1	0.91mi
1252 Vanderway Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	1698	$2,418	$1.42	6d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $305,260
3. 2026-04-09
   price $302,990
4. 2026-04-02
   price $299,990
5. 2026-03-04
   price $315,000
6. 2026-02-13
   price $325,000
7. 2026-02-05
   price $341,494
8. 2026-01-10
   price $325,000
9. 2025-10-03
   price $376,494
10. 2025-09-30
    listed $391,494 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,099
• − Property taxes: −$4,579
• − Insurance: −$1,526
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,472
• − Management: −$2,472
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$8,880
• Taxable loss: −$6,704
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,609
• After-tax cash flow: $130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lady Lake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #8302

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lady Lake, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 32,107
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-22.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $305,260 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $302,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $299,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $341,494 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $376,494 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Listed $391,494 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid