18 Otter Creek Ct · Belmar, NE 69147

$99,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 781 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2013

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming cabin that is fully finished & amp; wood stove.

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Built 2013
• Listed 11 days

Tags

• WOOD STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($813/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#535 in NE) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Ogallala Public Schools (town): math 45% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #78 of 111 in NE (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Keith County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Keith County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $100k implies a 1182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,288 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $28,940
• Equity at exit: $58,396

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $82,958
• Equity at exit: $102,241

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 69147

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $385/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $757

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $96	+0% $68	+5% $39	+10% $11
Rent	-10% $1	-5% $34	+0% $68	+5% $101	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $93	base $68	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $15

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,999 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,999 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,999 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,999 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,999 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,999 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,999 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 56-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $99,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $385 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,730 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,345/yr (+$112/mo · 349.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$385
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$809
• − Management: −$809
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$899
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$216
• After-tax cash flow: $1,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ogallala Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3174760
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,347
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3934
• State rank: #78 of 111 in NE

Livability — Belmar

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #25167

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belmar, NE
• Population (ZIP): 553

Population outlook (Keith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,706 people
• By 2030: 7,508 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 7,139 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 6,916 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 6,810 · -11.6%
• By 2100: 6,635 · -13.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Keith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.9) · D 17.4% · R 81.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -49.6pp · 2024: -63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.9 2020: R+63.7 2016: R+67.0 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.28%
• Current HPI: 236.8381
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+1182.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $99,999 FSBO.com
• 2004-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $385 · -9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.