116 Winnebago Way · Forest City, IA 50436

$148,150

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,385 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 589 Days on market

Built 1973 8,610 sqft lot $107/sqft · 30% below area Est $213k · 30% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent Ranch home with oversized attached garage, large backyard with patio and deck, basement family room, and basement nonconforming fourth bedroom. Updated mechanical systems and most appliances are included. Possession very soon. Contact agent for an appointment to view.

Key facts

• 8,610 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Listed 588 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-717/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in Forest City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#160 in IA, #2,902 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Forest City Community School District (town): math 67% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #111 of 289 in IA (top 38%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 589 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $117,248 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 589 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.73%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,987
• List price: $148,150
• Delta: -30.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 Hillhaven Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+6%)	10mo	$145,000	$99	66
106 Lawnsdale Ct	0.12mi	3/3.0	1,304 (-6%)	22mo	$243,000	$186	59
425 S 9th St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,445 (+4%)	5mo	$122,000	$84	57
436 W K St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,368 (-1%)	19mo	$135,000	$99	46
536 S 6th St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,284 (-7%)	24mo	$210,000	$164	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-27,816
• Equity at exit: $22,090

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-29,142
• Equity at exit: $12,809

Cash invested: $41,482 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50436

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,172 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$777
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,768/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,248

Max offer price $137,601

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,038
• Closing costs: $4,444
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $148,150 Active 589 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $148,150 Active 588 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $148,150 Active 587 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $148,150 Active 586 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $148,150 Active 584 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $148,150 Active 583 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $148,150 Active 580 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $148,150 Active 579 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $148,150 Active 578 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $148,150 Active 577 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $148,150 Active 574 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $148,150 Active 573 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $148,150 Active 572 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $148,150 Active 571 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $148,150 Active 570 DOM
16. 2024-11-05
    listed $148,150 Active 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Excellent Ranch home with oversized attached garage, large backyard with patio and deck, basement family room, and basement nonconforming fourth bedroom. Updated mechanical systems and most appliances are included. Possession very soon. Contact agent for an appointment to view.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,768 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,047 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$279/yr (+$23/mo · 15.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,299
• − Property taxes: −$1,768
• − Insurance: −$741
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,126
• − Management: −$1,126
• − Depreciation: −$4,310
• Taxable loss: −$3,299
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$792
• After-tax cash flow: $75/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forest City Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1911790
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,674
• Composite: 61.08/100
• National rank: #789
• State rank: #111 of 289 in IA

Livability — Forest City

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #2902

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forest City, IA
• Population (ZIP): 5,760

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,099 people
• By 2030: 9,831 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 9,326 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 9,073 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 9,448 · -6.4%
• By 2100: 10,279 · +1.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 21% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.7) · D 33.9% · R 64.6% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.7 2020: R+26.3 2016: R+26.5 2012: R+0.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.62%
• Current HPI: 187.8639
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-11-05 Listed $148,150 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,768 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.