2942 Arrowhead Dr · Abilene, TX 79606

$286,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1971 10,106 sqft lot Est $333k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large rooms - lots of family space. Great possibilities - formal dining and a garden room

Key facts

• Enclosed sunroom
• Brick home
• Tile flooring

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• TILE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• DOUBLE OVENS
• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Will subdivide: Yes; Survey available
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash, Conventional; Second mortgage: No
• HOA & community: No association (None)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Driveway
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; Preowned (built in 1971); Restrictions: Deed; Subdivision: Stonegate Add
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built 1971
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Covered patio/porch; Wood fencing; Interior lot; Lot dimensions approximately 88 x 115

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Double oven; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level; primary bedroom on main level)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Two living areas; Two dining areas; 11 total rooms; One-level layout
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Utility room on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $286k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $620 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $286k).
• Recommended offer: $282k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ward El (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 494 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+40.7%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,306/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 1181% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $80k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,710 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.29%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $332,940
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2965 Arrowhead Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	2,249 (+5%)	2mo	$280,000	$124	89
2925 Robertson Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	2,146 (-0%)	4mo	$297,000	$138	87
4624 Oak Knoll St	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,224 (+4%)	5mo	$310,000	$139	76
3025 Countryside Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	2,026 (-6%)	5mo	$299,000	$148	72
4326 Caprock Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,832 (-15%)	1mo	$280,000	$153	68
3124 Primrose Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,924 (-10%)	1mo	$309,900	$161	65
2833 Stonecrest Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,829 (-15%)	4mo	$285,000	$156	57
2317 Gilmer Ave	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,887 (-12%)	1mo	$279,900	$148	56
3142 Winter Hawk Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,832 (-15%)	2mo	$309,900	$169	50
4541 Pamela Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,005 (-7%)	6mo	$309,900	$155	48
3226 Pheasant Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,841 (-14%)	4mo	$315,000	$171	43
5057 Quail Ter	0.73mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,398 (+12%)	1mo	$400,000	$167	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $10,665
• Equity at exit: $42,644

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $139,885
• Equity at exit: $24,728

Cash invested: $80,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79606

• Rents YoY: 40.7%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,306 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,500
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,476/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$694
• Net cashflow: $620

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,521

Max offer price $286,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,500
• Closing costs: $8,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2510 Gilmer Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,995	$1.52	43d	1	0.36mi
2418 Helena Cir Abilene, TX	4.0	2.5	2478	$3,700	$1.49	10d	1	0.42mi
3134 Winterhawk Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,795	$1.55	7d	1	0.49mi
3826 Crest Way Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,695	$1.57	43d	1	0.83mi
4617 Catclaw Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	2263	$2,500	$1.10	13d	1	0.88mi
5400 Ridgeline Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	2571	$6,000	$2.33	24d	1	0.99mi
3409 High Meadows Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1987	$2,995	$1.51	20d	1	1.31mi
2601 Edgemont Dr Abilene, TX	2.0	2.0	1624	$2,495	$1.54	20d	1	1.32mi
5733 Legacy Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$5,000	$2.71	4d	1	1.33mi
2929 Sayles Blvd Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	2384	$6,000	$2.52	13d	1	1.47mi
25 Juniper Cir Abilene, TX	4.0	3.0	2557	$3,500	$1.37	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $286,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $286,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $286,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   status $286,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $286,000 Active Option Contract 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $286,000 Active Option Contract 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $286,000 Active Option Contract 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $286,000 Active Option Contract 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $286,000 Active Option Contract 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $286,000 Active Option Contract 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    price $286,000 Active Option Contract 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    statusdays on market $280,000 Active Option Contract 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    remarks 341-char remark
14. 2026-06-07
    listed $280,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,476 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,234 · $436/mo
• Expected delta: +$758/yr (+$63/mo · 16.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,020
• − Property taxes: −$4,476
• − Insurance: −$1,430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,174
• − Management: −$3,174
• − Depreciation: −$8,320
• Taxable income: $3,079
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$739
• After-tax cash flow: $6,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,182
• Household income: $79,196
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1181.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.33%
• Current HPI: 179.2555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 40.73%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+80.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $280,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-06 Rental Removed $1,750 NTREIS
• 2025-03-03 Listed for Rent $1,750 NTREIS
• 2025-02-06 Rental Removed $1,800 NTREIS
• 2025-02-05 Listed for Rent $1,800 NTREIS
• 2025-02-01 Rental Removed $1,800 NTREIS
• 2024-12-07 Price Changed $1,800 NTREIS
• 2024-10-29 Price Changed $1,850 NTREIS
• 2024-10-09 Listed for Rent $1,950 NTREIS
• 2014-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-11-13 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2014-11-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2014-10-24 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2014-10-16 Listed $154,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,476 · -10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.