3840 Riddles Bridge Rd · Goochland, VA 23063

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1998

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

It has three bedrooms two bath. It & acirc; & euro; & trade; s a extra large mobile home on 3.88 acres of land no Mortgage.

Key facts

• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 1.6% in Goochland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#160 in VA, #4,994 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Goochland County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #29 of 131 in VA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 322 units permitted in Goochland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Goochland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.98%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,475
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $27,700
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23063

• Home prices YoY: -27.2%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,010 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,367/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,506

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $506	-5% $452	+0% $398	+5% $344	+10% $291
Rent	-10% $239	-5% $319	+0% $398	+5% $478	+10% $557
Rate	-1.0pp $494	-0.5pp $446	base $398	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $190,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,367 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$191/yr (+$16/mo · 14.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,367
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,929
• − Management: −$1,929
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $1,770
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$425
• After-tax cash flow: $4,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goochland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101650
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $80,577
• Composite: 58.49/100
• National rank: #999
• State rank: #29 of 131 in VA

Livability — Goochland

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4994

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A- Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,728

Population outlook (Goochland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,040 people
• By 2030: 24,743 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 25,755 · +7.1%
• By 2050: 26,341 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 29,328 · +22.0%
• By 2100: 29,432 · +22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Goochland

• 2024 margin: R (+18.6) · D 40.1% · R 58.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.6 2020: R+19.4 2016: R+25.1 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 201.9426
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $190,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,367 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.