Marigold Plan · Saint Cloud, FL 34772

$431,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,340 sqft · SingleFamily · 73 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Entertain with ease in your spacious, new kitchen with adjoining dining and great room. Escape to the private primary suite to relax and unwind after a long day. Upstairs loft can be used to best fit your family's needs.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• Upstairs loft
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• UPSTAIRS LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $431,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $448,452.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $432k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-909 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (26.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (35.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hickory Tree Elementary School (math 64% / reading 59%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 795 students, 48% FRL); St. Cloud Middle School (math 52% / reading 50%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 1,229 students, 60% FRL); Harmony High School (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,822 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1285 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($406k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,211 (35.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.69%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $448,452
• List price: $431,990
• Delta: -3.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2825 Wild Olive Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,275 (-3%)	4mo	$550,812	$242	84
2881 Wild Olive Dr	0.06mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,392 (+2%)	3mo	$491,365	$205	82
2866 Hornbill Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,631 (+12%)	6mo	$439,393	$167	71
2885 Wild Olive Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,631 (+12%)	5mo	$469,500	$178	70
2903 Hornbill Dr	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,631 (+12%)	4mo	$431,644	$164	70
5037 Fallglo Way	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,208 (-6%)	4mo	$520,000	$236	63
5243 Buttonsage DR Dr	0.32mi	4/4.0	2,549 (+9%)	6mo	$515,900	$202	60
5081 Twin Lakes Blvd	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,208 (-6%)	5mo	$430,000	$195	57
5059 Tibet Ct	0.55mi	4/2.0	2,080 (-11%)	0mo	$399,000	$192	53
5133 Twin Lakes Blvd	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,080 (-11%)	6mo	$584,110	$281	50
5030 Sunfalls Ave	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,208 (-6%)	5mo	$410,000	$186	50
2899 Parkfield Rd	0.68mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,588 (+11%)	6mo	$525,000	$203	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-132,472
• Equity at exit: $66,866

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-197,593
• Equity at exit: $38,774

Cash invested: $125,567 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 90 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 21.6 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $486,250 ($222/sqft)
• Median days on market: 94 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -13.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34772

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 1285
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,772 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,352
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$561 /mo · $6,727/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $-909

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,923

Max offer price $316,892

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-599	-5% $-754	+0% $-909	+5% $-1,064	+10% $-1,219
Rent	-10% $-1,128	-5% $-1,019	+0% $-909	+5% $-800	+10% $-690
Rate	-1.0pp $-683	-0.5pp $-795	base $-909	+0.5pp $-1,025	+1.0pp $-1,144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,113
• Closing costs: $13,454
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2958 Sunstar Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2436	$2,449	$1.01	116d	1	0.22mi
2958 Sunstar Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2631	$2,449	$0.93	119d	1	0.22mi
5190 Minneola Ln Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2634	$2,700	$1.03	29d	1	0.27mi
2844 Nottel Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2159	$2,450	$1.13	119d	1	0.42mi
5055 Hatchineha Ct Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2159	$2,700	$1.25	74d	1	0.43mi
2980 Scarlett Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,500	$1.35	56d	1	0.51mi
2980 Scarlett Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,500	$1.35	60d	1	0.51mi
5055 Tibet Ct Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2492	$2,549	$1.02	56d	1	0.54mi
2720 Greenlands St Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1863	$3,500	$1.88	93d	1	0.54mi
2945 Nottel Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2658	$2,600	$0.98	93d	1	0.54mi
5054 Tibet Ct Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2580	$2,300	$0.89	119d	1	0.57mi
2989 Nottel Dr Saint Cloud, FL	5.0	3.5	2556	$2,650	$1.04	103d	1	0.62mi
4921 Lotta Ct Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2414	$2,400	$0.99	56d	1	0.63mi
4894 Knoll Ln Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2800	$2,790	$1.00	74d	1	0.66mi
4894 Knoll Ln Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2800	$2,850	$1.02	88d	1	0.66mi
4909 Olivia Ct Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1714	$2,500	$1.46	113d	1	0.71mi
4896 Stellar Dr Saint Cloud, FL	2.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1935	$2,573	$1.33	7d	9	0.78mi
2900 Ponce Crest Dr Saint Cloud, FL	5.0	3.0	2289	$3,600	$1.57	113d	1	0.79mi
5013 E Fountainwood Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	3.0	2365	$3,000	$1.27	42d	1	0.80mi
1989 Nottel Dr St Cloud, FL	5.0	3.5	2550	$2,650	$1.04	100d	1	0.82mi
3024 Fieldwood Cir Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	1884	$2,650	$1.41	74d	1	0.90mi
3071 Fieldwood Cir Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1713	$1,995	$1.16	7d	1	0.90mi
2859 Mosshire Cir Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1707	$2,250	$1.32	100d	1	0.94mi
4751 Maplewild Ln Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1983	$2,195	$1.11	7d	1	0.95mi
4751 Maplewild Ln Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1983	$2,250	$1.13	42d	1	0.95mi
4602 Harvest Row Ln Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	2026	$2,200	$1.09	94d	1	1.23mi
4602 Harvest Row Ln Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	2026	$2,200	$1.09	98d	1	1.23mi
2898 Harlow Ave Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.5	2164	$2,986	$1.38	4d	1	1.33mi
4582 Baler Trails Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1707	$2,500	$1.46	7d	1	1.37mi
3077 Sweet Acres Pl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1707	$2,500	$1.46	119d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $431,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan named MarigoldActive listing
• Exterior features: Living area of 2340

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Virtual tour available

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-07-18
   days on market $431,990 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-07-16
   days on market $431,990 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-07-15
   days on market $431,990 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-07-14
   days on market $431,990 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-07-13
   days on market $431,990 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-07-13
   days on market $431,990 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-07-11
   days on market $431,990 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-07-10
   days on market $431,990 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-07-10
   days on market $431,990 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-07-07
    days on market $431,990 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-07-06
    days on market $431,990 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-07-05
    days on market $431,990 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-07-03
    days on market $431,990 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-07-02
    days on market $431,990 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-07-01
    days on market $431,990 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-06-30
    days on market $431,990 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-06-29
    days on market $431,990 Active 55 DOM
18. 2026-06-28
    days on market $431,990 Active 54 DOM
19. 2026-06-27
    days on market $431,990 Active 53 DOM
20. 2026-06-26
    days on market $431,990 Active 52 DOM
21. 2026-06-24
    days on market $431,990 Active 50 DOM
22. 2026-06-22
    days on market $431,990 Active 48 DOM
23. 2026-06-21
    days on market $431,990 Active 47 DOM
24. 2026-06-18
    days on market $431,990 Active 44 DOM
25. 2026-06-17
    days on market $431,990 Active 43 DOM
26. 2026-06-16
    days on market $431,990 Active 42 DOM
27. 2026-06-15
    days on market $431,990 Active 41 DOM
28. 2026-06-13
    days on market $431,990 Active 39 DOM
29. 2026-06-13
    days on market $431,990 Active 38 DOM
30. 2026-06-10
    days on market $431,990 Active 35 DOM
31. 2026-06-08
    days on market $431,990 Active 34 DOM
32. 2026-06-07
    days on market $431,990 Active 33 DOM
33. 2026-06-04
    days on market $431,990 Active 30 DOM
34. 2026-06-03
    days on market $431,990 Active 29 DOM
35. 2026-06-02
    days on market $431,990 Active 28 DOM
36. 2026-06-02
    days on market $431,990 Active 27 DOM
37. 2026-05-31
    days on market $431,990 Active 26 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,120
• − Property taxes: −$6,727
• − Insurance: −$2,242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,661
• − Management: −$2,661
• − Depreciation: −$13,046
• Taxable loss: −$19,192
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,606
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,304/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with a spacious kitchen and living areas. It has potential for further value increase through exterior painting and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hickory Tree Elementary School B FL #634/2,144 Nat'l #6,818/41,679 Middle Harmony Middle School B- FL #196/571 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Harmony High School F FL #255/667 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Saint Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Osceola County · 447,624 people
• City population: 29,247
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,390
• Household income: $97,868
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 20% Cuban 2% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 36% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.55%
• Current HPI: 274.6517
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.30%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $431,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan named MarigoldActive listing
• Exterior features: Living area of 2340

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Virtual tour available