3209 Lakeside Dr · Rochester, MI 48316

$317,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,846 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1965 0.57 ac lot Est $340k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large 1864 sq. ft. colonial on corner lot, featuring 3 bedrooms plus primary bedroom suite (with new tile in bathrm). Additional 2nd floor full bath. This family home sits on an expansive corner lot with tons of room for the kids swing set, pool, trampoline, etc! The yard has many mature trees, bushes and perennial plants. The front entrance has a horseshoe driveway, the back of the house features a 3 season room and a side patio. The first floor includes large living rm, and family rm with gas fireplace, eat-in kitchen, 1st floor laundry, and powder rm off the attached garage. All appliances stay plus a basement frig. New electric panel 2009. New HWT 2021. This house is SOLD AS IS. A home warranty is included. Open house Sunday June 7. 1 pm. -4pm.

Key facts

• 3 season room
• Horseshoe driveway
• Perennial plants

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PRIMARY BEDROOM SUITE
• 3 SEASON ROOM
• HORSESHOE DRIVEWAY
• MATURE TREES
• PERENNIAL PLANTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the COUNTRY LANE ESTATES subdivision; Directions: North on Shelby Rd, west on 24 Mile Rd, south onto Wendover Dr, left to Lakeside Dr

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 spaces; Circular driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer and septic tank options; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Block foundation; Asphalt roof; Built with a partially finished lower level
• Exterior features: Covered porch and patio; Paved road access; Lot roughly 0.57 acres (194 x 73 x 193 x 113)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central air
• Interior features: Gas fireplace in the family room; Partially finished basement; Laundry room; 10 total rooms; Home warranty included
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-500 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (27.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (37.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (37.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.2% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#150 in MI, #3,744 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities D, health & safety D.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $199,204 (37.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.74%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $339,664
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52531 Butternut Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (-10%)	0mo	$400,000	$240	69
4037 Sandy Creek Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,771 (-4%)	12mo	$350,000	$198	59
52471 Ihla St	0.37mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,724 (-7%)	9mo	$317,000	$184	55
53125 Scenic Dr	0.26mi	4/1.5	1,678 (-9%)	18mo	$389,000	$232	54
53122 Scenic Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,647 (-11%)	21mo	$381,000	$231	45
4001 Huhn Cir	0.53mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,103 (+14%)	1mo	$315,000	$150	42
53265 Aulgur Dr	0.47mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,050 (+11%)	12mo	$334,000	$163	40
4160 Montgomery Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,037 (+10%)	16mo	$365,000	$179	34
4325 Morningview Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,080 (+13%)	21mo	$362,000	$174	25
53416 Briar Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,116 (+15%)	19mo	$335,000	$158	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-83,384
• Equity at exit: $47,400

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-113,776
• Equity at exit: $27,486

Cash invested: $89,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48316

• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,667
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,286/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-500

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,625

Max offer price $229,629

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-320	-5% $-410	+0% $-500	+5% $-590	+10% $-680
Rent	-10% $-657	-5% $-578	+0% $-500	+5% $-421	+10% $-342
Rate	-1.0pp $-340	-0.5pp $-419	base $-500	+0.5pp $-582	+1.0pp $-666

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,475
• Closing costs: $9,537
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $317,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $317,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $317,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $317,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,286 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,091 · $341/mo
• Expected delta: +$805/yr (+$67/mo · 24.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,807
• − Property taxes: −$3,286
• − Insurance: −$1,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$9,248
• Taxable loss: −$11,851
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,844
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634470
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $65,953
• Composite: 40.52/100
• National rank: #3709
• State rank: #126 of 540 in MI

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #150
• US rank: #3744

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 28,355

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -200.39%
• Current HPI: 186.8397
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $317,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listed $317,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,286 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.