631 Cayuga Ave · Watertown, NY 13601

$29,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,406 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1880 0.42 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investors check out your next rehab project! Perfect Investment property or flip! Possibilities are endless! Being Sold as is and Priced to sell! Call for your private showing today!

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• Built 1880
• Listed 8 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Cap rate 37.4% vs local median 6.2% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 111.13%
• DSCR: 5.94
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,660
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
750 Bradley St	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,446 (+3%)	1mo	$173,500	$120	77
522 Frontenac St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,296 (-8%)	6mo	$142,500	$110	63
854 Superior St	0.23mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,325 (-6%)	20mo	$174,000	$131	56
823 Morrison St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (-8%)	10mo	$33,500	$26	54
466 Holly St	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,536 (+9%)	18mo	$63,000	$41	49
476 Vanduzee St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,612 (+15%)	12mo	$160,000	$99	47
670 Hazelhurst Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,530 (+9%)	15mo	$235,000	$154	44
570 Morrison St	0.53mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,306 (-7%)	16mo	$142,000	$109	43
314 W Hoard St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,351 (-4%)	15mo	$28,000	$21	43
207 Cedar St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,274 (-9%)	10mo	$205,000	$161	38
830 Anne St	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (-15%)	19mo	$130,000	$108	35
825 Davidson St	0.73mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,296 (-8%)	18mo	$149,900	$116	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $22,036
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.07×
• Total profit: $75,931
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,235 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $373/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $836

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
836 Leray St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1782	$1,200	$0.67	43d	1	0.68mi
351 W Main St Watertown, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	43d	1	0.88mi
136 N Meadow St Unit A Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	43d	1	0.93mi
207 Wealtha Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,304	$0.91	43d	9	0.94mi
611 Cooper St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,495	$1.26	43d	1	0.95mi
159 Mullin St Unit 2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2024-01-12
   status Pending
2. 2022-06-03
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show
3. 2022-05-26
   listed $29,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $373 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $439 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: +$66/yr (+$6/mo · 17.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$373
• − Insurance: −$5,674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,186
• − Management: −$1,186
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $3,857
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$926
• After-tax cash flow: $2,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-01-12 Pending — CNYIS
• 2022-06-03 Pending — CNYIS
• 2022-05-26 Listed $29,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $373 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.