35480 Pine Dr · Long Neck, DE 19966

$194,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition $155/sqft · 54% above area Est $160k · 21% over $2/mo HOA ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience waterfront living at its finest without the hefty price tag! This stunning three-bedroom, two-bath home is only 4 years old and in excellent condition. The thoughtfully designed open-concept layout creates the perfect space for entertaining family and friends, with seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas. Step outside to your backyard oasis where you can hop on your boat, enjoy kayaking or fishing, or simply relax on the porch while taking in the peaceful water views. Located in the desirable Mariners Cove community, residents enjoy access to a community pool and boat ramp—making it easy to enjoy everything this waterfront lifestyle has to offer. Conveni

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 2022
• Listed 97 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $194k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-327/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (2.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.4% in Long Neck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#30 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Indian River School District (rural): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #14 of 26 in DE (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Long Neck Elementary School (math 22% / reading 35%, grade F, #57 of 105 statewide, top 55%, 693 students, 0% FRL); Millsboro Middle School (math 24% / reading 42%, grade F, #14 of 36 statewide, top 37%, 771 students, 0% FRL); Sussex Central High School (math 23% / reading 42%, grade F, #24 of 40 statewide, top 59%, 2,039 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 49% district-wide (49 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 870 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,540 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.57%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,344
• List price: $194,000
• Delta: 20.99%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35468 Joann Dr #11511	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,260 (+1%)	11mo	$52,000	$41	83
27299 Dinghy Rd #1348	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	10mo	$69,000	$58	54
35476 Bayview Ln #4147	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	17mo	$146,000	$104	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-32,851
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-29,546
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19966

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 870
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$242 /mo · $2,910/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,282

Max offer price $190,063

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $40	+0% $-27	+5% $-94	+10% $-161
Rent	-10% $-205	-5% $-116	+0% $-27	+5% $62	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $22	base $-27	+0.5pp $-77	+1.0pp $-129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35829 S Gloucester Cir Unit 35829 Long Neck, DE	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,995	$1.33	15d	1	0.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $194,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $194,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $194,000 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-04-06
    price $199,000
17. 2026-03-16
    listed $210,000 Active
18. 2025-07-08
    historical
19. 2025-05-08
    price $199,000
20. 2025-04-29
    price $208,000
21. 2025-03-26
    price $213,000
22. 2025-02-20
    listed $218,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$2,910
• − Insurance: −$6,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,158
• − Management: −$2,158
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$3,280
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$787
• After-tax cash flow: $461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This waterfront home is in excellent condition with a modern open-concept layout and easy access to water activities. It's a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River School District
• NCES district ID: 1000680
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $53,838
• Composite: 28.99/100
• National rank: #6620
• State rank: #14 of 26 in DE

Livability — Long Neck

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #8720

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sussex County · 82,708 people
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• Population (ZIP): 35,884
• Household income: $78,305
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 264,464 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 290,980 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 311,259 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 352,488 · +41.6%
• By 2100: 367,406 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.9% · R 54.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+13.0 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.26%
• Current HPI: 268.5609
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $199,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $199,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $208,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $213,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-20 Listed $218,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $328 · -11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.