36403 S Timber Rd · Paradise Hill, OK 74451

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1980 5,077 sqft lot Est $86k · 7% under $9/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Super cute, updated 2 bedroom, 1 bath mobile home. This adorable lake home is located on a corner lot. Features many updates in the last 5 years including water heater, paint, flooring, roof, pex lines, appliances, HVAC, and new septic system installed in 2026. Enjoy the exclusive amenities of the neighborhood: community inground swimming pool, playground, community building, and boat ramp with lake access less than 2 miles from the home. Here is your golden opportunity to have an affordable lake home with all the updates! Listing agent related to seller.

Key facts

• Lake access
• Corner lot
• Boat ramp

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• INGROUND SWIMMING POOL
• BOAT RAMP
• LAKE ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with clubhouse, pool, and guard; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Dirt driveway
• Security: No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Septic tank; Rural water
• Home design: Single-wide manufactured home; Single-story; Faces east; Tie-down foundation
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch, deck; Dirt driveway; Corner lot; Tenkiller Lake nearby (less than 5 miles); In-ground pool with liner

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (first level); Additional bedroom (first level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with shower (hall bath, first level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Aluminum window frames; Laminate countertops; Electric oven and range connections; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($952 rent vs $80k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#675 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D, schools F.
• Tahlequah (town): math 27% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #109 of 270 in OK (top 40%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Cherokee County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.88%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $86,016
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15723 W Rifle Barrel Rd	0.37mi	2/1.0	1,016 (-1%)	3mo	$109,900	$108	75
35742 S Maple Dr	0.54mi	2/1.5	1,024 (0%)	19mo	$65,000	$63	57
15671 W Black Oak Rd	0.28mi	2/2.0	896 (-12%)	11mo	$60,000	$67	57
15274 W Rocky Rd	0.46mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (+7%)	12mo	$55,000	$50	48
15884 W Flint Rock Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+9%)	23mo	$94,000	$84	42
15826 Lake View Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (+7%)	21mo	$100,000	$92	41
15009 W Cedar Ln	0.67mi	2/2.0	900 (-12%)	11mo	$141,400	$157	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $39,035
• Equity at exit: $48,452

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.53×
• Total profit: $101,395
• Equity at exit: $86,372

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74451

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $952 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $161/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$9
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $601

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $323	-5% $300	+0% $277	+5% $163	+10% $136
Rent	-10% $202	-5% $240	+0% $277	+5% $315	+10% $353
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $298	base $277	+0.5pp $257	+1.0pp $236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $9 · $108/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 562-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $79,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $161 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $719 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$558/yr (+$47/mo · 346.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$161
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$914
• − Management: −$914
• − HOA: −$108
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $2,128
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$511
• After-tax cash flow: $2,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahlequah
• NCES district ID: 4029380
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $32,990
• Composite: 21.28/100
• National rank: #8393
• State rank: #109 of 270 in OK

Livability — Paradise Hill

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #675
• US rank: #25705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,816

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,747 people
• By 2030: 53,481 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 56,503 · +9.2%
• By 2050: 59,370 · +14.7%
• By 2075: 67,178 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 70,900 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Native American 27% Two or more races 20% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.6) · D 32.7% · R 65.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.2pp · 2024: -32.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.6 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+27.5 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.65%
• Current HPI: 256.0707
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $79,900 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+21.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $161 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.