3440 Dolphin Dr · Oak Island, NC 28422

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,015 sqft · Land · 6 Days on market

Built 2024 9,148 sqft lot $56/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Station 3 River Run Homesite great for single or Modular. This Waterfront community offers Pool, Tennis, Bsketball, Catch and Release Ponds, Pier, Small Craft Boat Launch (Large Craft Launch at Sunset Harbor 2 miles down the Road), Gated, Walking trails, Community Pier.

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2024

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.8% in Oak Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#233 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Williamson Elem (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 502 students, 99% FRL); South Brunswick Middle (math 41% / reading 49%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 572 students, 100% FRL); South Brunswick High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,172 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 569 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $199k implies a 342% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.94%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-17,559
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,806
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28422

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 569
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,102 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,812

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $56 · $672/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $199,000 Active
3. 2025-12-27
   historical
4. 2025-10-11
   price $209,900
5. 2025-07-01
   price $217,900
6. 2024-04-30
   listed $219,900 Active
7. 2023-08-30
   soldstatus $45,000 Closed 270-char remark

   Show marketing remark (270 chars)

   Station 3 River Run Homesite great for single or Modular. This Waterfront community offers Pool, Tennis, Bsketball, Catch and Release Ponds, Pier, Small Craft Boat Launch (Large Craft Launch at Sunset Harbor 2 miles down the Road), Gated, Walking trails, Community Pier.

8. 2023-08-30
   soldstatus $45,000

   Show marketing remark (270 chars)

   Station 3 River Run Homesite great for single or Modular. This Waterfront community offers Pool, Tennis, Bsketball, Catch and Release Ponds, Pier, Small Craft Boat Launch (Large Craft Launch at Sunset Harbor 2 miles down the Road), Gated, Walking trails, Community Pier.

9. 2023-07-28
   status Pending 270-char remark

   Show marketing remark (270 chars)

   Station 3 River Run Homesite great for single or Modular. This Waterfront community offers Pool, Tennis, Bsketball, Catch and Release Ponds, Pier, Small Craft Boat Launch (Large Craft Launch at Sunset Harbor 2 miles down the Road), Gated, Walking trails, Community Pier.

10. 2023-03-14
    listed $45,000 Active 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Station 3 River Run Homesite great for single or Modular. This Waterfront community offers Pool, Tennis, Bsketball, Catch and Release Ponds, Pier, Small Craft Boat Launch (Large Craft Launch at Sunset Harbor 2 miles down the Road), Gated, Walking trails, Community Pier.

11. 2022-08-16
    soldstatus $35,000 Closed
12. 2022-08-15
    soldstatus $35,000
13. 2022-07-26
    status Pending
14. 2022-05-02
    listed $36,800 Active
15. 2019-06-17
    soldstatus $14,000
16. 2019-06-17
    soldstatus $14,000
17. 2019-02-02
    listed $15,000
18. 2015-08-11
    soldstatus $8,000
19. 2008-08-29
    historical
20. 2006-11-20
    listed $30,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,018
• − Management: −$2,018
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$397
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$95
• After-tax cash flow: $2,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Oak Island

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #233
• US rank: #10757

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• City population: 8,756
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,059
• Household income: $69,412
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 243.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.19%
• Current HPI: 141.1956
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+552.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $199,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-12-27 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $209,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $217,900 Hive MLS
• 2024-04-30 Listed $219,900 Hive MLS
• 2023-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-30 Sold (MLS) $45,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-07-28 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2023-03-14 Listed $45,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-08-16 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-26 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2022-05-02 Listed $36,800 Hive MLS
• 2019-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-17 Sold (MLS) $14,000 Hive MLS
• 2019-02-02 Listed $15,000 Hive MLS
• 2015-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records
• 2008-08-29 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2006-11-20 Listed $30,500 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $140 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.